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机构：中金公司
研究员：Xuelai LI/Yikang ZHANG/Qiaosheng CHENG
ASMPT announced its 2Q22 results: Revenue edged up 0.5% YoY but declined 1.2% QoQ to HK$5.20bn (US$664mn), slightly lower than the bottom of the preannounced range. The revenue misses our forecast, mainly due to deferred revenue recognition as COVID-19 affected the logistics and dampened demand. In 2Q22, earnings grew 23.5% YoY or 9.0% QoQ to HK$905mn. Gross margin rose 1.10ppt YoY or 1.04ppt QoQ to 41.7%, mainly thanks to the value-added effect created by higher revenue contribution from automobile and industrial clients, adjusted pricing and other strategic measures.
The firm secured a total value of HK$4.65bn (US$593mn) new orders in 2Q22, down 36.5% YoY or 34.0% QoQ. Specifically, orders declined 48.2% QoQ to HK$2.13bn (US$272mn) for semiconductor equipment and dropped 14.0% QoQ to HK$2.52bn (US$321mn) for surface-mount technology-based (SMT) equipment. Excluding the impact of the high base effect in 2Q21, we think the firm maintained a relatively high order growth compared with the second quarters in 2019 and 2020. Based on the value of unfinished orders (HK$11.18bn or US$1.42bn) and anticipated order confirmation, the firm estimates its 3Q22 revenue at US$560-630mn.
Trends to watch
Revenue contribution from orders declined QoQ; overall GM increasing on automotive and industrial SMT equipment. Against the backdrop of a complex macroeconomic environment and the continuous impact of COVID-19 on logistics, we think market supply and demand were under great pressure in 2Q22. At the same time, the capacity utilization rate of downstream packaging companies notably declined, leading to deferred delivery of new equipment. Guided by pessimistic demand expectations, we think some of the manufacturers likely adjusted their capex to ease pressure on cash flow. However, thanks to solid demand from automotive and industrial segments, GM of the firm’s SMT business delivered positive QoQ growth in 2Q22, a fifth successive quarter of rising GM.
We suggest watching application of the firm’s products in automotive semiconductor and advanced packaging segments. In 1H22, revenue contribution was about 9% from computers, 22% from consumer electronics, 18% from telecommunications, 14% from industrial segments, and 20% from automobile segment. Advanced packaging accounted for about 18% of revenue from technologies. We notice that demand for consumer electronics such as COMS image sensors (CIS) came under pressure. However, the firm reported notable growth in revenue from automotive electronics, offsetting part of the decline. Its thermal compression bonding (TCB) equipment incorporates more advanced process technologies, which overlap with hybrid bonding (HB) equipment in advanced nodes. We expect TCB products to offer strong future growth.
Financials and valuation
We leave our 2022 and 2023 earnings forecasts unchanged. The stock is trading at 8.5x 2022e and 8.0x 2023e P/E. Maintain OUTPERFORM. Considering that the number of orders and unfinished orders declined and it still takes time to resume growth, we lower our TP by 18% to HK$90, implying 11.8x 2022e P/E, offering 40% upside.
Risks
Market demand comes under pressure; delayed lead time of packaging equipment.