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社区
会员
机构：中金公司
研究员：Gangxian LIU/Xin YANG/Sifan JIANG/Qibin FENG
The company announced its 2025 results: Revenue rose 18.5% YoY to US$12,158mn; gross profit rose 35.7% YoY to US$1,463mn; adjusted EBITDA grew 34.8% YoY to US$1,049mn; adjusted EBIT increased 87.9% YoY to US$566mn; adjusted net profit grew 112.3% YoY to US$425mn, in line with our expectations. By region: In Southeast Asia, revenue increased 40% YoY to US$4,502mn, parcel volume increased 68% YoY to 7,659mn, market share expanded 5.8ppt YoY to 34.5%, revenue per parcel fell 17% YoY to US$0.59, while EBIT per parcel remained broadly flat YoY at US$0.07. In the Chinese market, revenue increased 55% YoY to US$6,710mn, parcel volume increased 11% YoY to 22,066mn, market share declined 0.2ppt YoY to 11.1%, revenue per parcel declined 6% YoY to US$0.30, and EBIT per parcel declined US$0.003 YoY to US$0.004. In new markets, revenue increased 51% YoY to US$870mn, parcel volume increased 44% YoY to 404mn, market share expanded 1.4ppt YoY to 7.5%, revenue per parcel increased 5% YoY to US$2.15, and EBIT per parcel increased US$0.28 YoY to US$0.01, marking the new markets’ first-ever turnaround from loss to profit.
Trends to watch
Southeast Asia: EBIT per parcel stabilizing, leveraging cost advantage to consolidate its top position. Since 1H24, the company’s EBIT per parcel has remained broadly stable at US$0.07, while it has continuously widened the gap with other third-party logistics providers in market share. We believe that as economies of scale increase, the company can further optimize its cost per parcel, creating room for price reductions that will allow it to capture additional market share and solidify its leading position. Given its rising market share, we expect parcel volume growth to exceed 50% in 2026.
New markets: Industry development is still in early stages, and parcel volume is likely to maintain high growth alongside e-commerce penetration. We believe J&T, as a third-party logistics provider serving Chinese cross-border ecommerce platforms and local Latin American e-commerce platform Mercado Libre, stands to benefit from rising ecommerce penetration in Latin America. It may also enter the market of other countries in 2026. We estimate that its parcel volume could grow as much as 90% YoY in 2026.
China: EBIT per parcel will likely recover amid antiinvolution policies. We will monitor progress on cost optimization. We expect parcel volume to grow 10% YoY in 2026, with its leading market position remaining stable.
Financials and valuation As the firm’s overseas business volume may maintain high growth this year, we raise our 2026 and 2027 adjusted net profit forecasts 20% and 21% to US$682mn and US$911mn, implying 17x 2026e and 13x 2027e adjusted P/E. Maintain OUTPERFORM. As the average valuation of the sector has declined due to geo-economic factors, we maintain our TP at 22x 2026e and 16x 2027e adjusted P/E, offering 31% upside.
Risks Fluctuations in competitive landscape; disappointing demand growth; policy headwinds overseas.