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中概股新浪到底有多便宜?

2018年7月23日10时04分

本文作者为多次撰文分析中概股的美国投资人TSG Capital创始人Jay Somaney,由格隆汇翻译整理。

Sina Corporation, the Chinese internet company, is currently trading at values that go beyond the absurd. Yes, the shouting on China trade has never been louder and daily we have negative articles and fake news coming out from almost every news source.

中国互联网公司新浪(Sina Corporation)目前的股价堪称荒谬。是的,有关对中贸易问题的呼声从未像现在这样大,每天我们都有负面的文章和来自几乎所有新闻来源的假新闻。

Sina also is the majority and controlling shareholder in Weibo, often called the Chinese Twitter.

新浪也是微博(通常被称为中国推特)的主要和控股股东。

Shedding light on the absurdity of the current valuation, here is a simple calculation for all of you to consider.

为了阐明当前估值的荒谬,这里有一个简单的计算供大家考虑。

Sina Corporation has a current market capitalization of $5.95 billion, as of Friday's closing price per share of $83.26. It owns about 46% of Weibo. Weibo has a current market capitalization of $19.6 billion also based on Friday's closing price per share of $88.10.

新浪公司目前的市值为59.5亿美元,截至上周五的收盘价为每股83.26美元。它拥有大约46%的微博股权。新浪微博目前的市值为196亿美元,亦按上周五的收盘价每股88.10美元计算。

So, Sina's 46% stake in Weibo is worth $9 billion given the current value being assigned to the latter by investors. If the market were to assign Sina a market value of only what its stake in Weibo is worth, shares of Sina should currently be trading at $125.94 per share. That is not even taking into account the $32 per share in net cash that Sina holds which would then make the shares worth around $178.

因此,新浪拥有的微博46%股份价值90亿美元,因为目前的价值是由投资者决定的。如果市场认为微博的估值仅相当于微博的市值,那么目前新浪的股价应该是每股125.94美元。这甚至还没有考虑到新浪持有的每股32美元的净现金,这将使该股价值约为178美元。

Most importantly, most investors do not realize that Sina not only owns 46% of Weibo but via a complicated ownership structure (Class A shares versus Class B shares), Sina controls 72% of the voting power in Weibo. Which basically means that Sina exercises almost total control over Weibo, whether its an acquisition maybe, even by Sina itself or another company or whether its anything else.

最重要的是,大多数投资者没有意识到,新浪不仅拥有微博46%的股份,而且通过复杂的所有权结构(A类股及B类股),新浪控制着新浪微博72%的投票权。这基本上意味着新浪几乎对微博拥有完全的控制权,无论是由新浪自己或其他公司进行收购、沽首或其他事项。

For 2018, current Street estimates are at $3.24 per share in earnings for Sina with revenues of $2.28 billion. For 2019, current Street consensus sits at $4.87 per share in earnings and $3 billion in revenues. Year-on year growth rate in earnings per share and revenues is 50% and 31% respectively.

目前华尔街对新浪2018年的盈利预期是每股3.24美元,营收为22.8亿美元。2019年,华尔街的共识是每股盈利4.87美元,收入30亿美元。每股收益和营收同比分别增长50%和31%。

For Weibo, the Street expects the company to earn $2.83 per share on revenues of $1.8 billion in 2018 and $4.06 per share on revenues of $2.5 billion for 2019. Growth rates are 43% and 39% respectively.

对微博而言,华尔街预计该公司2018年营收为18亿美元,2019年营收为25亿美元,每股营收为4.06美元。增长率分别为43%和39%。

Any investor is going to be hard pressed to find those sort of growth rates in any company in the West.

任何投资者都很难在西方的任何一家公司中找到这样的增长率。(或许美国科技股除外?)

In addition to the shouting on trade, there is a lot of screaming and sweaty-palmed hand wringing about the Chinese government letting the yuan decline in an attempt to offset the adverse effects of the tariffs levied by the US. Yes, the yuan is trading at one-year lows versus the greenback, however, an astute investors has to question whether the Chinese ADRS have been beaten up beyond reasonableness relative to the yuan weakness.

除了有关贸易战的大呼小叫外,还有很多人不满意因中国政府让人民币贬值以抵消美国征收的关税带来的不利影响。是的,人民币兑美元目前处于一年低点,但精明的投资者不得不质疑,相对于人民币走弱,中国的ADR是否受到了超出合理范围的低估。

Take a look at the performance of the following Chinese ADRS since the shouting has intensified to deafening levels and since the companies reported their respective Q1 results:

请看以下中国ADR的表现,因为这些大呼小叫已经达到震耳欲聋的程度,而且两家公司分别报告了各自的第一季度业绩:

Alibaba-down 5% or so from the post Q1 earnings highs

阿里巴巴股价较第一季度盈利高点下跌5%左右

Baidu-shares are actually up 3% from where they were post Q1 results.

实际上百度比第一季度的业绩增长了3%。

Sina-shares closed at $90 the day the company reported earnings for Q1, down from $100/share the day before Q1 results. Since the Q1 results, shares are down an additional 9%.

新浪公布第一季度收益的当天,该公司股价收于90美元,低于第一季度财报前一天的每股100美元。自第一季度以来,股价累计下跌了9%。

Weibo-shares closed at $110 the day the company reported earnings for Q1, down from $128/share the day before Q1 results. Since the Q1 results, shares are down an additional 38%.

该公司公布第一季度财报的当天,微博股价收于110美元,低于第一季度财报前一天的每股128美元。自第一季度业绩公布以来,该公司股价又下跌了38%。

Almost seems like investors are surmising that Sina and Weibo will be the most adversely impacted by the trade shouting and yuan devaluations, no?

投资者似乎揣摩,新浪和新浪微博受到人民币贬值的负面影响最大。

Does that even make sense to a rational investor?

这对一个理性的投资者有意义吗?

Trading at less than 11x estimated earnings for 2019, after factoring out net cash, Sina could be considered beyond cheap, no?

剔除净现金后,新浪的市盈率还不到2019年预期盈利的11倍,这应该被视为价格超低,不是吗?

If one can look beyond the current screaming and hollering along with massive fake news/intense scare-mongering on a daily basis on Chinese investments, easing into Sina today could turn out to be one of the best investments one can make going forward.

如果人们能够抛开当前的尖叫和咆哮,每天都有关于中国投资的大量虚假新闻和强烈的恐吓性炒作,那么今天就慢慢买进新浪,可能会成为未来最好的投资之一。

Along with the rest of the Chinese ADRs as well.

和其他的中国ADR一样。

After all, the trade war situation will end at some point and more than likely it will end relatively amicably compared to the end of the world scenario currently being painted by the ASNAL gang.

毕竟,贸易战的局面将在某一时刻结束,而且很有可能会以相对友好的方式结束,而不是像某些人所描绘的世界末日那样。

As they say, it's always darkest before dawn.

正如人们所说,黎明前总是最黑暗的。

One word of advice. Don't look for Wall Street analysts to help out. They are busy taking cover under their desks as they almost always do, when times get tough, leaving their investors dangling in the wind so to speak.

简而言之,不要指望华尔街分析师帮得上忙。他们忙着躲在桌子底下,就像往常一样,当形势变得艰难的时候,让他们的投资者随风摇摆。

Words to the wise.(long SINA, BIDU, BABA)

对明智者的话。(买入新浪,百度,阿里巴巴)

免责声明:本文所述内容为作者个人意见,不构成专业投资意见,如阁下有意做出投资应作出独立决策或咨询专业人士意见。本公司仅为转载,不承担阁下因此所致之损失。

 

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