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机构：申万宏源研究
研究员：Zhao Lingyi
Annual takeout transaction users and transaction frequency per capita reached a record high, operating margin increased 2.5% YoY. In 4Q21, the transaction volume of the delivery business increased to Rmb3.91bn （+17.4% YoY）， with ATV of Rmb48.2 （+2.8% YoY）。 Among them, night snack, milk tea, salad, light food and other new consumer categories increased significantly, effectively driving the increase of orders from middle- and high-frequency users. Annual number of food takeout users increased 13% YoY, and average transaction frequency increased 25% YoY. Takeout business’ GTV increased to Rmb188.6bn （+20.7% YoY）。 Revenue increased to Rmb26.1bn （+21.3% YoY）。 The take rate increased to 13.8% （+0.4pct QoQ）。 Operating margin reached 6.6% （+2.5pct YoY） due to increasing contribution from online marketing services and reduced seasonal subsidies for riders. The new rate policy introduced in 2021 brought greater transparency in pricing and more flexible delivery options to support the development of smaller catering firms.
In-store business drives growth, hotel & travel enhance high-star hotel supply. In 4Q21, revenue from In-store, hotel & travel reached Rmb8.77bn（+22.2% YoY）， mainly driven by strong growth momentum from categories of leisure and entertainment, sports, elderly care, medical care, and pet care of in-store services. Operating profit stood at Rmb3.9bn, with operating margin of 44.7% （+0.8pct QoQ）， both reaching record highs. Domestic hotel room nights increased to 115m （-3.7% YoY） for 4Q21 and 477m （+34.5% YoY） for FY2021. For high-star hotels, room nights contribution exceeded 16.5% in 2021, thanks to continued improvement in high-star hotel supply. In addition, company solidified the competitive advantage in the low-star hotel market, bringing offline users to online platform, and helping more hotel merchants digitise operations.
Focus on balanced and high-quality growth, narrower loss of new businesses. In 4Q21, the revenue of the new businesses increased to Rmb14.67bn （+6.9% QoQ）， with operating loss narrowing to Rmb10.2bn （improving 10% QoQ）。 In term of the community group buying business, Meituan Select launched a “fresh produce direct sourcing” program to improve supply efficiency and will continue to focus on balanced and high-quality growth, which may improve the profitability in the future. In terms of Instant Shopping, the delivery service has successfully converted a large number of high-quality food delivery users into Meituan Instashopping users, with highest daily order volume exceeding 6.3m in December 2021. For Meituan Grocery, the company optimises product structure, enhances warehousing and logistics capabilities to improve efficiency.
Upgrade to BUY. Considering the recurrence of COVID-19 and strengthened control measures in some areas, which has negatively affected food delivery and in-store, hotel & travel segment, we lower our adjusted EPS forecasts from -Rmb0.91 to -Rmb2.07 in 22E, from Rmb1.88 to Rmb1.51 in 23E, and add forecast of Rmb2.27 in 24E. Considering the potentially rapid recovery after the easing of the COVID-19, we give a 4.5x PS/ 35x PE for the food delivery/hotel business, referring to the valuation of Uber, Doordash/Ctrip. We give a 2x 22E PS for new businesses. Under the SOTP valuation method, we derive our target price of HK$243. With 80% upside, we upgrade our rating to BUY.
Risks. Weakness of macro consumption, recurrence of COVID-19 in some areas, weaker-than- expected performance of new initiatives.