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会员
机构：中金公司
研究员：Gangxian LIU/Xin YANG/Qibin FENG
J&T Global Express released its 3Q26 operating data: Average daily parcel volume rose 44.5% YoY to 31.4mn in Southeast Asia, 15.3% YoY to 69.9mn in China, and 159.5% YoY to 2.9mn in other markets. We believe overseas parcel volume continues to gain market share, with an encouraging growth contribution from other markets. We are upbeat on the firm's progress in expanding its international market share.
Comments
Southeast Asia: Parcel volume growth may have slowed in 3Q26 due to a high base and macroeconomic fluctuations, but remained strong. In the near term, we suggest watching peakseason promotions in 4Q26. Over the medium to long term, we are upbeat on the firm's ability to continue gaining market share in both e-commerce and non-e-commerce parcels through improved service quality.
We believe growth in Southeast Asia's e-commerce retail market and express delivery demand has slowed due to a high base in 2H25 and fluctuations in macroeconomic factors such as oil prices and FX rates. However, we see further room for penetration to increase. We suggest monitoring peak-season promotions in 4Q26 and expect the firm's Southeast Asian parcel volume to maintain strong growth of 50–55% YoY in 2026.
In addition, the firm added 10 sorting centers in 3Q26, bringing the total to 131; increased its line-haul vehicle fleet by 100 to 5,900; and added 17 automated sorting machines, bringing the total to 81. We believe the expansion of its network capacity should enhance service capabilities, supporting continued market share gains in both e-commerce and non-e-commerce parcels over the medium to long term.
New markets: Growth accelerated for seven consecutive quarters; upbeat on sustained rapid parcel volume growth alongside rising e-commerce penetration. Watch investment progress in Colombia, Germany, and the UK. As a logistics provider to international e-commerce platforms such as TikTok and Latin American e-commerce platform Mercado Libre, we believe the firm is well positioned to benefit from rising ecommerce penetration in Latin America.
Looking ahead, we expect the firm to gradually expand into more new markets globally, including in Latin America, leveraging its experience in China to develop e-commerce express delivery networks and ecosystems, and capitalize on overseas e-commerce growth. We expect parcel volume in other markets to grow 100–120% YoY in 2026, with its share of total parcel volume continuing to rise.
China: Revenue per parcel recovers amid the anti-involution campaign; watch cost optimization. We expect parcel volume in China to grow 8–10% YoY in 2026, with the firm's position among leading players becoming increasingly stable.
Financials and valuation
We maintain our 2026 and 2027 adjusted net profit forecasts at US$735mn and US$984mn. The stock is trading at 15x 2026e and 11x 2027e adjusted P/E. Maintain OUTPERFORM. We keep our target price unchanged at HK$13.20, implying 22x 2026e and 16x 2027e adjusted P/E, and offering 47% upside.
Risks
Changes in competitive landscape; disappointing demand growth; policy headwinds overseas.