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机构：招银国际
研究员：Wayne FUNG
After several years of pricing competition to fence off competitors, J&T hasachieved profit in Thailand since this year. Currently, J&T ranks no. 1 inThailand, with the parcel volume equal to the total volume of no. 2 to no. 4players. Management is confident of the growth potential in Thailand market, interms of e-commence penetration and per capita parcel volume. For SoutheastAsia (SEA) market as a whole, J&T is confident that its parcel volume growthwill outpace the industry average in 2026E. We continue to like J&T, due to (1)the unmatched competitive edge and market share gain potential in SEA (32.8%in 1H25), and (2) good potential in new markets such as Brazil and the MiddleEast. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP unchanged at HK$13.4.
Key takeaways from investor call:
Key customers in SEA and South America: In SEA, Tik Tok is J&T’slargest customer. In South America and the Middle East, Shein is the largestone.
Parcel growth in Thailand: J&T achieved parcel volume CAGR of 40%+over the past three years. J&T currently has 200k customers, including none-commerce customers of 20k. By utilising the spare network capacity, J&Thas also expanded its product offering such as fruit parcel, time-definite andLTL products.
Competitive landscape in Thailand: J&T ranks no. 1 in Thailand, with theparcel volume equal to the total volume of no. 2 to no. 4 players. Majorcompetitors include Lazada Logistics and Shopee. J&T believes that givenits network with higher density, the delivery efficiency is higher which resultsin cost advantage.
Cost management. J&T has achieved cost reduction of 10% p.a. since2022. J&T mentioned that the use of self-owned trucks has helped reducecost by 30% compared with the use of leased trucks. J&T believes that thereis further room for cost reduction going forward.
Key risks: 1) Higher-than-expected ASP pressure; 2) competition in newmarkets.