机构:国泰君安(香港)
研究员:Vincent Liu
On the user side, Weibo’s MAU in December 2021 was 573 million, up 10.0% yoy but flat compared with September 2021. DAU was 249 million, up 10.7% yoy and 0.4% qoq. DAU/MAU increased by 0.3 ppt yoy and 0.2 ppt qoq to 43.5%.
We expect Weibo’s revenue in 2022-2024 to be US$2,325 million, US$2,513 million, and US$2,617 million, respectively, representing yoy growth of 3.0%, 8.1% and 4.1%. For advertising and marketing, overall outlook in 2022 is expected to be less optimistic, but we believe that Weibo will continue to weigh its resources to key verticals. For value-added services, we expect yoy decline in 2022, mainly due to high base of 2021 and live streaming business which is significantly influenced by regulation.
We maintain our investment rating as "Accumulate" but revise down our target price to HK$255.00. Mainly due to incremental costs from active investment in key verticals and tax expenses, we expect decline in margins.Our target price represents 11.8x, 10.3x and 9.3x 2022-2024 non-GAAP PER, respectively.