来自HSBC的环保行业报告:是时候转变重心


在占中事件持续冲击以及海外市场回调等多重因素打压,港股短短一个月间跌逾10%,多数个股泥沙俱下。环保股虽然也顺势调整,但是其抗跌性在弱市中显露无疑。格隆汇持续看好环保股的逻辑依旧没有任何改变。本期港股那点事接着分享来自HSBC关于环保股的研究报告。

以下是报告的摘要内容:

Fresh momentum. Recent sitevisits and roadshows have highlighted two industry surprises and renewed ourconfidence in China’s environmental story. We were surprised to learn there ismore new water BOT tendering than expected – driven by previous over-statementof the treatment ratio, increasing sewage discharge from urbanization andgovernments pushing forward environmental protection, in our view. In addition,a massive waste-to-energy (WTE) project in Hangzhou highlights that landfillsare filling up fast, and we think the Street has missed large, high-return,low-risk projects in major cities where WTE construction has fallen far behindthe 12th FYP.

最近的调研和路演都强调了两个市场惊喜从而加强了我们对中国环保的信心。由于之前夸张的水务处理比例,城市污水排放的增加和政府大力强调环境保护,我们发现新的水务BOT项目超过了我们的预期。此外,一个杭州的大型垃圾发电项目说明垃圾填埋场的负担继续加重,我们认为投资者没有从中国主要城市的高回报低风险的垃圾发电项目中收益,因为垃圾发电建设明显落后于十二五规划。

Time to shift focus. While we continue to likeoperators (e.g. Beijing Enterprises Water (BEW)), we think Sound Global (SGL)can outperform from its strong engineering, procurement and construction (EPC)business. EPC earnings often beat expectations during upcycles and we see thishappening for SGL with the unexpected amount of new projects, a pick-up in Chinadomestic peers’ growth, and accelerating upgrades and industrial/rural sewageconstruction from the upcoming Action Plan on Prevention and Control of WaterPollution. In addition, we believe SGL’s recent share price drop has factoredin near term negatives from the proposed deals in September and the marketshould start focusing on the long-term positives.

是时候转变重心
 
尽管我们继续推荐运营商(比方北控水务),我们认为桑德国际可以在他的EPC业务中表现强劲。EPC在升级改造中的收入总是超过我们的预期,由于桑德国际有很多新项目,我认为这种情况正在发生,并且受益于大陆同行的发展,加速升级和工业和生活污水建设来自接下去的污染控制计划。此外,我相信桑德国际最近股价的下跌是受近期负面消息的影响,而市场应该开始关注长期发展。

We reiterate OW on BEW and China Everbright Int’l(CEI) on strong EPS growth (~25% CAGR from 2014-16e) and further EPSupgrade potential on the two industry surprises. We initiate on Dynagreen (DNG)with OW(V) on EPS recovery, potential to lower finance costs, visible growthtrajectory and its SOE background. We upgrade China Conch Venture (CCV) to N(V)after its recent share price weakness.

由于EPS的强劲增长(25%左右的复合年增长率),我们重申对中国光大国际和北控水务的买入评级。由于EPS的恢复,公司的增长潜力和更低的财务成本,可见的增长轨迹和国企背景,我们首次对绿色动力环保给予买入评级。我们在中国海螺创业股价持续走弱的情况下上升了对其的评级至中性。


公司名称
评级/目标价/催化剂
北控水务(0317.HK)
评级:买入
目标价6.1HKD
潜在收益15%
业务概览:污水处理龙头
投资主题:1)污水处理费上升。2)处理量增加
催化剂:并购,税费上升,政府政策/强调环境保护

海螺创业(586.HK)
评级:中性
目标价6.1
潜在收益10%
业务概览:水泥回转窑城市固体废物焚化
投资主题:看好水泥砖窑固废处理,但增长估值合理。
催化剂:获得新垃圾焚烧项目,WWCB投入商业生产

中国光大国际(257.HK)
评级:买入
目标价:12.6
潜在增长21%
业务概览:垃圾发电,污水处理
投资主题:1)危废物处理。2)垃圾发电。3)污水处理扩张。4)和汉科环境的协调效益
催化剂:获得新危废处理垃圾发电项目,汉科完成,近一步的政策,环保的强调

绿色动力环保(1330.HK)
评级:买入
目标价6.5
潜在收益:25%
业务概览:按合约算,中国第三大垃圾发电
投资主题:EPS增加,财务成本下降,可视的增长轨迹,国企背景
催化剂:项目开始建设,获得新项目

桑德国际(967.HK)
评级:买入
目标价11.5
潜在收益40%
业务概览:污水处理市场的EPC和BOT
投资主题:新项目,EPS增长,污水处理题标
催化剂:稳定的EPC订单,BOT项目,并购,债务成本下降,政策引导

*声明:文章为作者独立观点,不代表格隆汇立场

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