第一次接受电视节目采访的鲍威尔,都说了些什么?

作者:大卫翁 

来源:起朱楼宴宾客

2009年3月,带领美国经济走出次贷危机的时任美联储主席伯南克,罕见地出现在CBS节目“60分钟”上接受采访。

11年后的3月,正处于疫情漩涡之中的美国,美联储主席鲍威尔则选择登上了NBC Today节目。

而同一天晚上,耶伦则在一家券商的电话会议里出现。

这大概就是轮回的最好诠释。

那么,这次鲍威尔到底都说了些什么?我根据流出来的采访底稿做了一些翻译和注释工作,希望能一窥已经“用尽王炸”的美联储,现在在想些什么。

>> THE FEDERAL RESERVE DOESN’T EXACTLY PRINT MONEY. BUT AS ONE WRITER PUT IT YOU DO HAVE THE ABILITY TO CONJURE MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR. MY QUESTION TO YOU IS SIMPLE. IS THERE ANY LIMIT TO THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THE FED IS WILLING TO PUT INTO THIS ECONOMY TO KEEP IT AFLOAT? IS IT A BLANK CHECK?

主持人上来就很犀利,问鲍威尔是不是美联储可以无限制的开动印钞机,还是说直升机撒钱也是有限度的?

>> SAVANNAH, WE -- IN CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES LIKE THE PRESENT WE DO HAVE THE ABILITY TO ESSENTIALLY USE OUR EMERGENCY LENDING AUTHORITIES. AND THE ONLY LIMIT ON THAT WILL BE HOW MUCH BACKSTOP WE GET FROM THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT. WE’RE REQUIRED TO GET FULL SECURITY FOR OUR LOANS SO THAT WE DON’T LOSE MONEY. SO THE TREASURY PUTS UP MONEY AS WE ESTIMATE WHAT THE LOSSES MIGHT BE. BUT ESSENTIALLY THE ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION, THOUGH, IS NO. WE CAN CONTINUE TO MAKE LOANS AND REALLY THE POINT OF ALL THAT IS TO SUPPORT THE FLOW OF CREDIT IN THE ECONOMY TO HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES.

鲍威尔也很直接,回答说撒钱确实是没有一个上限的。只要居民和企业部门需要,美联储就可以不断地注入资金去购买资产。

但他也强调,唯一的限制来自于财政部,美联储的每一个资产买入计划,都必须有财政部的背书才行。因此就像前两天美联储开启无限量QE时声明里特别说的——“这些计划都得到了财政部的支持,以确保美联储不会蒙受损失。”

>> SO YOU’RE SAYING NO, IT’S NOT A BLANK CHECK, BUT YES, YOU’RE PREPARED TO SPEND AN UNPRECEDENTED AMOUNT?

>> WE CERTAINLY ARE. IT’S NOT A BLANK CHECK IN THE SENSE THAT WE ARE LIMITED BY THE ABILITY TO TAKE LOSSES. BUT I WOULD SAY THAT THE NUMBER -- EFFECTIVELY $1 OF LOSS ABSORPTION OF BACKSTOP FROM TREASURY IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT $10 WORTH OF LOANS. SO REALLY THE ANSWER IS WE WILL -- WHAT’S HAPPENED IS ALL OVER THE WORLD INVESTORS HAVE PULLED BACK TO VERY LESS RISKY THINGS, THAT’S UNDERSTANDABLE. BUT WHAT THAT’S MEANT IS THAT MANY PLACES IN THE CAPITAL MARKETS WHICH SUPPORT BORROWING BY HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES, MORTGAGES AND CAR LOANS AND THINGS LIKE THAT HAVE STOPPED WORKING. WE CAN STEP IN AND REPLACE THAT LENDING UNDER OUR EMERGENCY LENDING POWERS. WE WILL DO THAT. WHEREVER THERE IS IN THE CAPITAL MARKETS WHERE CREDIT IS NOT FLOWING WE HAVE THE ABILITY IN THIS UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCE TO TEMPORARILY STEP IN AND PROVIDE THOSE LOANS.WE WILL KEEP DOING THAT AGGRESSIVELY AND FORTHRIGHTLY AS WE HAVE BEEN.

鲍威尔接下来提出了一个概念——每进行1美元的财政担保,美联储就可以拿来支持10美元的贷款放出。从这里可以看出,美联储的做法是将财政部的承诺进行杠杆放大。这样一来,现在出问题的企业债券、房贷、车贷等等,美联储都可以在紧急情况下卷起袖子下场提供支持。

鲍威尔斩钉截铁的说,只要资本市场哪里发生了信用坍塌,在现在的特殊情况下,美联储就会去救急。

这种说法其实非常的重,08年金融危机时伯南克都未曾这么表态过。就像最后一句鲍威尔说的——“我们会非常激进的去做这样的救助。”

>> THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE COUNTRY RARING TO GO BY EASTER. HE WANTS THE COUNTRY BACK OPEN. PUBLIC HEALTH EXPERTS HAVE RESISTED THAT TIMELINE. CAN THE ECONOMY HANDLE A MONTH’S LONG SHUTDOWN IF THAT IS WHAT THE PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY REQUIRES AND DEMANDS?

主持人接着问了一个很关键的问题。川普希望美国社会在复活节,也就是4月中上旬就要结束隔离,恢复秩序,但是卫生部门显然是强烈反对的——中国用了两个月时间都不敢全面放开,凭什么美国20天就能搞定?

那么问题来了,如果按照卫生部门的要求来延长社会隔离时间,经济吃得消吗?

>> WELL, THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION. SO I THINK THIS IS -- PEOPLE NEED TO UNDERSTAND, THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL DOWNTURN. WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE IS PEOPLE ARE BEING ASKED TO CLOSE THEIR BUSINESSES, TO STAY HOME FROM WORK, AND TO NOT ENGAGE IN CERTAIN KINDS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. AND SO THEY’RE PULLING BACK. AND AT A CERTAIN POINT WE WILL GET THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS UNDER CONTROL. AND AT THAT TIME CONFIDENCE WILL RETURN, BUSINESSES WILL OPEN AGAIN, PEOPLE WILL COME BACK TO WORK. SO YOU MAY WELL SEE, YOU KNOW, SIGNIFICANT RISES IN UNEMPLOYMENT, SIGNIFICANT DECLINES IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. BUT THERE CAN ALSO BE A GOOD REBOUND ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT AND THAT’S ACTUALLY ONE OF THE MAIN THINGS WE’RE TRYING TO DO BY ASSURING THE FLOW OF CREDIT IN THE ECONOMY AND THAT THAT REBOUND, WHEN IT DOES COME, IS AS VIGOROUS AS POSSIBLE.

从这一段开始,鲍威尔其实一直强调这一次经济危机的特殊性

这一次的经济下行和其他下行周期是不同的,因为任何经济下行周期中,人们都不会被某种指令强制要求把店铺关掉、待在家里、不进行任何消费行为。而在其他下行周期里,这些行为都是经济主体自发完成的,和这次截然不同。

那么区别就来了。这次一旦疫情被控制住了,其实人们是会立刻走出门去,商铺也会重新开业,所以经济的反弹理论上说会比其他的下行周期猛烈的多。

所以美联储现在在做的工作主要是托底,确保经济里的流动性能维持到疫情结束的那一天,然后依靠经济自己的力量再猛烈反弹。

>> I GUESS THE ISSUE, THOUGH, THAT’S BEEN SORT OF RAISED IN THESE RECENT DAYS IS, IS THE CURE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE? IS SHUTTING DOWN THE ECONOMY FOR THE SAKE OF PUBLIC HEALTH, DOING LASTING DAMAGE TO THE ECONOMY THAT MAY NOT BE RECOVERABLE? SO I GUESS YOU’RE NOT A DOCTOR, YOU’RE AN ECONOMIST, BUT WHERE DO YOU COME DOWN ON THAT DEBATE, IS IT BETTER TO SOLVE THE PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS AND THEN LET THE ECONOMY BOUNCE BACK OR DO YOU THINK WE SHOULD RUSH INTO OPENING THE ECONOMY BACK UP BECAUSE, FRANKLY, THE DAMAGE BEING DONE IS WORSE?

主持人抛出一个选择题——究竟应该等疫情完全结束后再让经济恢复,还是应该尽快让经济恢复,否则造成大萧条的话,对社会的打击会比疫情更加严重?

>> SO THAT, OF COURSE, IS NOT -- WE’RE NOT AN EXPERT, WE’RE NOT EXPERTS IN PANDEMICS OVER HERE, WE DON’T GET TO MAKE THAT DECISION. I WOULD SAY, THOUGH, YOU KNOW THAT WE WOULD TEND TO LISTEN TO THE EXPERTS. DR. FAUCI SAID SOMETHING LIKE THE VIRUS IS GOING TO SET THE TIMETABLE AND THAT SOUNDS RIGHT TO ME. I THINK THE SOONER WE GET THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS UNDER CONTROL PEOPLE WILL REGAIN CONFIDENCE WHEN THEY BECOME CONFIDENT THAT IS THE CASE THEY WILL VERY WILLINGLY OPEN THEIR BUSINESSES UP, GO BACK TO WORK, THE CONSUMER WILL BE SPENDING. SO I THINK THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE TO GET THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS UNDER CONTROL AND THEN RESUME ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.

鲍威尔没有很正面的回答这个问题。他只是说应该先确保疫情得到控制了,然后再恢复经济。

但问题是,这个疫情控制是指完全消失?还是新增人数出现拐点?如果从中国的案例来看的话,其实后者和前者之间还有很远的路要走。

>> AS YOU WELL KNOW A RECESSION IS A TECHNICAL TERM. IT MEANS TWO STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GROWTH. WE’VE ALREADY HAD ONE QUARTER. PUT IT BLUNTLY, DO YOU THINK WE ARE ALREADY IN RECESSION? DO YOU THINK IT IS INEVITABLE THAT WE WILL BE IN RECESSION?

主持人又问,两个季度经济下滑就是衰退,那我们现在是不是已经在衰退中啦?

>> WE MAY WELL BE IN A RECESSION. AGAIN, I WOULD POINT TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS AND A NORMAL RECESSION. THIS ISN’T -- THERE’S NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG WITH OUR ECONOMY. QUITE THE CONTRARY. THE ECONOMY PERFORMED VERY WELL RIGHT THROUGH FEBRUARY, WE’VE GOT 50 YEAR LOW IN UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS SO WE START IN A VERY STRONG POSITION. THIS ISN’T SOMETHING THAT’S WRONG WITH THE ECONOMY, THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE PEOPLE ARE BEING ASKED TO STEP BACK FROM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CLOSE THEIR BUSINESSES, STAY HOME FROM WORK SO IN PRINCIPLE, IF WE GET THE VIRUS SPREAD UNDER CONTROL FAIRLY QUICKLY THEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CAN RESUME. AND WE WANT TO MAKE THAT REBOUND AS VIGOROUS AS POSSIBLE.

这个就是今天晚上很多媒体的标题来源————“鲍威尔说美国经济已经开始衰退”。

问题是人家鲍威尔很明确的说了,这次衰退和以前的都不同,这次是“天灾人祸”,其实之前美国经济的状况一直是很好的,比方说50年以来最低的失业率等等。所以经济本身没任何问题,是因为疫情,所以人们被迫停止了经济行为。

所以鲍威尔始终认为,如果疫情结束,经济还是会回到原来的轨道里的。

>> YEAH, A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY THAT AFTER A RECESSION LIKE THIS YOU COULD SEE A BIG BOUNCEBACK. WE DIDN’T SEE THAT IN 2008. YOU KNOW, IT WASN’T LIKE THE AVERAGE RECESSION WHERE YOU SEE A DROP AND THEN YOU SEE A BIG BOUNCEBACK. IT WAS A SLOW AND SLUGGISH UNCERTAIN RECOVERY AFTER 2008 BUT I THINK I HEAR YOU SAYING THAT ONCE THIS PUBLIC HEALTH ISSUE IS RESOLVED YOU EXPECT A ROBUST BOUNCEBACK.

主持人还在追问,说08年的时候我们也没看到经济大幅反弹呀,是慢慢好转的,那为什么这次就可以疫情结束后大反弹呢?

其实鲍威尔刚才已经回答过了,因为他认为这次的衰退不是内生性的,而是外部冲击导致的。

>> WHAT I’M REALLY SAYING IS WE DON’T KNOW. AND THE SOONER WE GET THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND GET THE VIRUS UNDER CONTROL THE SOONER THE RECOVERY CAN COME. THERE’S NO OTHER -- WE DON’T HAVE COMPARABLE EXPERIENCES TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT. WE KNOW THAT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WILL DECLINE, PROBABLY SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE SECOND QUARTER. BUT I THINK MANY EXPECT, AND I WOULD EXPECT THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TO RESUME AND MOVE BACK UP IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, VERY HARD TO SAY PRECISELY WHEN THAT WILL BE AND IT WILL AND WE WANT TO MAKE THAT REBOUND AS VIGOROUS AS POSSIBLE.THE VIRUS IS GOING TO DICTATE THE TIMETABLE HERE.

鲍威尔也承认,这次的衰退问题在于,我们没有任何可以遵循的经验。而他预计经济复苏会在二季度———再说一次,从中国经验来看,这其实是个很乐观的预计了。

>> WHEN WE SEE SOME OF THE ACTIONS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS BEEN TAKING, AND THEY’RE EXTRAORDINARY AND IN SOME CASES UNPRECEDENTED, I THINK SOME PEOPLE WILL FEEL REALLY KIND OF RELIEVED AND HEARTENED. AND OTHERS MIGHT FEEL A LITTLE WORRIED. WHAT ARE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH TAKING SOME OF THESE BOLD ACTIONS, PUMPING SO MUCH MONEY INTO THE ECONOMY? I MEAN, ONE ISSUE, OF COURSE, WOULD BE WORRYING ABOUT INFLATION. IS THERE A LONG-TERM RISK TO THE ACTIONS BEING TAKEN NOW?

主持人问到了货币政策如此宽松可能造成的后遗症,会不会有通胀风险。

>> YOU KNOW, WE DON’T REALLY SEE THAT. WHAT WE SEE, THOUGH, IS WHAT WE SEE IS SMALL, MEDIUM AND LARGE BUSINESSES ARE NOT ABLE TO BORROW THROUGH THEIR NORMAL CHANNELS TO SOME EXTENT. WE STEP IN AND REPLACE THAT. THAT’S A VERY HEALTHY THING. THAT’S A POSITIVE THING. WE’RE PROVIDING RELIEF, WE’RE PROVIDING STABILITY. WE’RE TRYING TO CREATE A BRIDGE FROM OUR VERY STRONG ECONOMY TO ANOTHER PLACE OF ECONOMIC STRENGTH AND THAT’S WHAT OUR LENDING REALLY DOES. IT’S VERY BROAD. IT’S ACROSS SMALL, MEDIUM AND LARGE BUSINESSES. WE’LL -- WE ARE ALREADY HELPING STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND JUST PLACES WHERE CREDIT IS NOT BEING OFFERED WHERE IT SHOULD BE OFFERED, WHERE IT’S REALLY JUST OFFERED, WHERE IT’S REALLY JUST A QUESTION OF LY LICK-- APPROPRIA DO IN THIS HIGHLY UNUSUAL SITUATION WE’RE IN.

鲍威尔再次没有正面回答问题,他只是说目前没有看到通胀风险。而他强调的是,现在的“撒钱”是为了确保中小微企业可以拿到所需的现金流,因为他们从正常的债券市场或者借贷市场已经借不到钱了。所以他认为美联储现在在做的是非常正确的事情,那就是确保经济中的毛细血管不会坏死,这样疫情结束后,经济才可能迎来反弹。

个人认为,这是非常重要的一个表述。认为经济在疫情结束后复苏是大家的共识,但如果在这个过程中,经济中的毛细血管都坏死了,那复苏力度一定会打折扣。中国之所以不太会遇到这种事情,是因为中国企业还是大量依靠银行贷款,而不是直接融资,这在危急时刻反而救了这些企业。毕竟银行是可以被有形的手控制的,而市场却很难。

>> THE OTHER ISSUE THAT COMES UP IS WHETHER OR NOT YOU MIGHT NOT RUN OUT OF AMMO, RUN OUT OF BULLETS AND TO THAT POINT ARE YOU SORRY THAT YOU DIDN’T RAISE INTEREST RATES A LITTLE MORE WHEN THE ECONOMY WAS STRONG SO YOU’D HAVE MORE CUSHION NOW?

主持人问到美联储现在的武器库的问题,并咄咄逼人的说,是否会因为当年经济不错的时候没有多加两次息,留足缓冲空间而后悔?(港真鲍威尔当年真没法强力加息,否则不被川普骂死,也要被市场的唾沫淹死。)

>> WHEN IT COMES TO THIS LENDING WE’RE NOT GOING TO RUN OUT OF AMMUNITION. THAT DOESN’T HAPPEN. YOU KNOW, WE SET THE INTEREST RATES IN TIME AT WHAT WE THINK IS THE RIGHT -- GIVEN THE ECONOMY, THE RIGHT LEVEL OF SUPPORT. IF WE’D RAISED INTEREST RATES MORE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN WE THOUGHT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WOULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT SLOWER SO IT WOULDN’T HAVE MATTERED IN THE END. WE REALLY ARE ALWAYS SETTING OUR INTEREST RATES AT THE LEVEL WE THINK IS APPROPRIATE AND WE’VE CUT THEM TO 0 NOW. WE STILL HAVE POLICY ROOM IN OTHER DIMENSIONS TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY BUT THE MAIN THING WE’RE DOING NOW IS REALLY WITH OUR LENDING PROGRAMS. THAT’S THE PRINCIPLE THING WE’RE DOING IS SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY THROUGH THAT CHANNEL.

鲍威尔先是为自己之前的举动辩解了几句,说是合适的啦,当时如果再加息可能经济会变得很弱之类的。

之后切入正题,他并没有说任何负利率的事情,没有表示美国可以进入负利率,而是说现在美联储会专注于解决信用问题,解决企业的融资问题。

至少在这次采访中,鲍威尔没有透露出美国会进入负利率时代的意思

>> IF I’M SITTING A THE HOME AND I LOST MY JOB OR I’M A RESTAURANT OWNER AND I LAID OFF EVERY SINGLE ONE OF MY WORKERS OR I OWN A NAIL SALON AND I HAD TO CLOSE UP SHOP DOES ANYTHING THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS DOING RIGHT NOW HELP ME?

主持人问,既然你一直在说美联储现在要解决企业的融资问题,那如果我开的美甲店关门了,或者我开的餐厅倒闭了,美联储现在的做法能帮助到我吗?

>> YES, WELL KEEPING RATES LOW WILL REDUCE THE INTEREST BURDEN ON PEOPLE, KEEPING THE FLOW OF CREDIT WILL HELP PEOPLE. PRINCIPALLY, THOUGH, I WOULD LOOK TO THE LEGISLATION THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT OR THIS MORNING. REALLY. WHICH IS GOING TO DIRECT AID TO SMALL, MEDIUM AND LARGE BUSINESSES, TO LOW AND MODERATE INCOME COMMUNITIES, TO THE UNEMPLOYED. TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS. TO THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM. THAT’S REALLY WHERE THE IMMEDIATE RELIEF IS GOING TO COME FROM. THE HELP FROM THE FED WILL BE WHEN THE ECONOMY BEGINS TO REBOUND THEN WE’LL BE THERE TO MAKE SURE THAT THAT REBOUND IS AS STRONG AS POSSIBLE.

鲍威尔把锅秒甩给了2万亿美元的刺激计划。他认为那个计划才是现阶段拯救这些个体的最有效的措施,而美联储的帮助要等到经济开始反弹才会显现——就像之前说的,因为美联储现在措施的目的是保护经济的本原,毛细血管不会坏死,这样等疫情结束后经济才能快速反弹。

>> MR. CHAIRMAN, I HAVE TO ASK YOU, I’M SURE YOU’RE AWARE THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN QUITE CRITICAL OF THE FED AND OF YOU PERSONALLY. I’M NOT GOING TO GET INTO ALL OF IT BUT HE HAS IN TWEETS CALLED YOU CLUELESS, CALLED THE FED PATHETIC, SLOW MOVING. DOES WHAT THE PRESIDENT SAYS AFFECT YOU AND WHAT YOU DO? DOES IT MAKE YOUR JOB HARDER OR DO YOU JUST IGNORE IT?

主持人很尖锐,问到鲍威尔和川普的关系,问到美联储的独立性到底有没有的问题。

>> YOU KNOW, MY COLLEAGUES AND I HERE ARE TOTALLY FOCUSED ON OUR MISSION OF SERVING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. WE KNOW THAT WHAT WE DO IS IMPORTANT FOR ALL AMERICANS. AND WE TRY TO DO OUR ABSOLUTE BEST TO SERVE THEM IN A WAY THAT IS COMPLETELY NON-POLITICAL, NON-PARTISAN. JUST TO SERVE ALL AMERICANS. THAT’S OUR ONLY FOCUS. WE DON’T LET ANYTHING ELSE GET INTO OUR THINKING AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, THAT’S JUST THE WAY IT. WE HAVE A VERY STRONG CULTURE. THAT’S DEEP IN OUR DNA AND THAT’S JUST THE WAY IT’S ALWAYS GOING TO BE.

鲍威尔必然是强调自己有独立性的,这个也没好说的。

>> AND FINALLY, SIR, IN ABOUT TEN SECONDS I HAVE LEFT WE WENT BACK AND LOOKED, THIS SHOW’S BEEN ON THE AIR 60 PLUS YEARS, I THINK IT’S BEEN 30 YEARS SINCE WE HAD A FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN ON LIVE, MAYBE LONGER, MAYBE NEVER. IT’S SO RARE TO HAVE AN INTERVIEW LIKE THIS. I JUST WAS CURIOUS, WHY YOU DECIDED TO SPEAK OUT AND WHAT IS THE MESSAGE YOU WANT TO SEND TO AMERICANS AT THIS VERY DIFFICULT TIME?

主持人最后问道,这节目开播30年以来没采访过美联储主席(09年伯南克上的是CBS节目,所以主持人直接就忽略了。。。)那么为什么鲍威尔这时候要出来接受采访?他想传达什么讯息?

>> SO REALLY THE MESSAGE IS THIS. THAT THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION. IT’S NOT LIKE A TYPICAL DOWNTURN. WE’VE ASKED PEOPLE TO STEP BACK FROM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REALLY TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT IN OUR PUBLIC HEALTH. THEY’RE DOING THAT FOR THE PUBLIC GOOD AND THIS BILL THAT’S JUST PASSED IS GOING TO TRY TO PROVIDE RELIEF AND STABILITY TO THOSE PEOPLE. THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS WORKING HARD TO SUPPORT YOU NOW AND WE’LL -- AND OUR POLICIES WILL

鲍威尔最后又强调了一遍,这次经济下行的特殊性,在于外来不可抗力,而非经济内生动能的衰落。因此这一揽子刺激政策其实是为了回报这些为了疫情而果断放弃自己的生意、工作和经济行为的人的,而美联储现在在做的,也是为了支持这些为了公共卫生做出重大牺牲的经济主体。

不得不说,这个说法听起来还是很感人的。

总结一下,鲍威尔目前的几个观点:

1、这次经济下行,或者说衰退,由于是外界因素造成的,不是经济内生的,所以疫情结束后经济反弹的幅度会很猛烈。

2、那么美联储要做的,就是确保疫情结束后经济能反弹。也就是说,现在美国经济在“冬眠”中,要确保毛细血管不会被冻死,让那些中小微企业,甚至一些大企业,能够得到融资现金流。这是美联储不断扩大资产购买计划,确保信贷市场不会崩盘的原因。

3、而要帮当下的个体渡过难关,其实美联储是爱莫能助的,要靠刚通过的财政刺激计划。

4、目前暂时没有考虑负利率的可能性。

*声明:文章为作者独立观点,不代表格隆汇立场

相关阅读

评论