戴姆勒:豪华车首摘中国市场销量桂冠,电动化持续推进

作者:天风证券研究所汽车邓学团队

图:EQA——紧凑纯电SUV,戴姆勒EV家族新生力量

内容目录

1.最近报告

2.事件点评

3.图表

4.电话会议详细纪要

事件

北京时间2月11日下午,戴姆勒股份公司(DDAIF)发布了截至2019年12月31日的2019财年财务和业绩数据(未经审计):集团全年乘用车和商用车总销量为334万辆,同比下降0.3%;营业收入为1727亿欧元,同比增长3%;全年息税前利润为43亿欧元,同比2018年息税前利润111亿欧元锐减61.2%;调整后的息税前利润(反映基础业务)为103亿欧元。

点评

法律诉讼、架构重组和并购活动重创利润,同比下滑64.3%。虽然集团19年总销量与18年的335万辆几乎保持持平,总营收小幅增长,但全年息税前利润腰斩;集团净利润27.1亿欧元,同比下滑64.3%;自由现金流14亿欧元,同比下滑51.7%。奔驰股份公司董事会主席表示:影响了去年的财务业绩的重大影响主要包括:与诉讼相关费用、架构重组事项以及并购交易。

各板块销量稳中有升,集团净利率1.57%,同比-2.96%,移动出行亮眼。2019年,轿车方面销量238.5万辆,增长甚微但创历史新高。营收939亿欧元,同比+0.08%;净利率3.6%,同比-4.2%;EBIT33.59亿欧元,同比-53%,负面影响主要来自诉讼费用、奔驰柴油车相关事项以及对召回费用进行了新的评估。卡车销量48.9万辆,同比-6%;营收402亿欧元,同比+5%;EBIT24.63亿欧元,同比-11%,主要受北美和亚洲市场销量下滑拖累。货车销量43.8万辆,同比+4%;营收148亿欧元,同比+9%;但净利率-20.8%,同比-23.1%,主要受Takata安全气囊召回事件的影响。客车销量3.3万辆,同比+6%;总营收47亿欧元,同比+5%;净利率6.0%,为唯一一个销售回报率有所增长的板块,主要得益于有利的汇率以及eCitaro城市巴士在曼海姆的工厂投产并交付。戴姆勒移动出行19年总营收286亿欧元,同比+8.7%;EBIT21.4亿欧元,同比+55%;ROE15.3%,同比+4.2%。

北美地区增长强劲,营收同比+9%,中国市场喜忧参半。2019年集团营收1727以欧元,同比增长3%,其中北美自贸区522亿欧元,同比增长9%,德国本土市场263亿欧元,增长6%,而中国市场营收报190亿欧元,同比减少4%,但全年轿车中国市场份额3.3%,同比提高0.4%,并首次摘得中国豪华车销量桂冠。

坚持可持续发展战略,全面压缩成本。戴姆勒预计全球乘用车市场将保持进一步扩张的趋势,公司将致力于碳中和的目标“Ambition 2039”。面对业绩压力,集团将保持研发力度同时全方位缩减成本。措施可能包括5月停产X级轿车;至2022年缩减10%管理层规模等,节约人力成本14亿欧元;至2022年欧洲卡车业务节约成本达2.5亿欧元。具体目标包括2022年累积提升净利率3%,以及实行比往年更为严格的成本控制计划。

电动化进程有序推进,EV产能持续扩张,多型号EQ今年亮相。2020年,SMART将只提供EV版本,继续扩产EQC,并预计在年中推出EQV,年末推出EQA;2020年前提供20余种插电混动车型并全面发展48V轻混技术,使48V车辆销售翻倍,xEV份额翻两番(2%到9%),以及继续扩能3大洲7国的9座电池工厂。

预计20年销售额同比持平或略有下跌,财务数据稳中向好。集团对于20年业绩持谨慎态度。预计明年除客车外,集团轿车、货车、卡车三大板块销量都将出现小幅收窄。预计调整后汽车和货车净利率为4%,卡车和客车净利率为5%,戴姆勒移动出行ROE为12%。预计集团EBIT和自由现金流有较大提升,固投和研发支出保持持平。

风险提示

经济低迷、电池产能不及预期、成本控制不及预期,需求不足

数据图表

电话纪要

戴姆勒电话会议详细纪要内容:

2019财年整体经营情况总结

Ola Källenius(戴姆勒全球CEO)

Bjorn,谢谢您,热烈欢迎本次会议以及所有通过Livestream加入我们的人。

Thank you, Bjorn, and a warm welcome to this conference and also to all of those who join us via Livestream.

今天参加这次会议,我想在我真正开始演讲之前,我想稍微回顾一下情况,并思考过去几个月发生的事情,并展望未来。

Going into this conference today, I was thinking that before I actually start with the presentation, I wanted to reflect a little bit upon the situation and think about what has happened over the last few months and looking forward into the future.

当我们在11月的资本市场日与你们中的许多人见面时,我们提出了我们面临的情况。我们向您提供了一个计划,我们将如何应对这种情况。我们在2019年启动了很多措施,这些措施开始受到关注。

When we met with many of you at the Capital Markets Day in November, we laid out the situation that we're facing. We presented to you a plan, how we're going to deal with this situation. And we initiated a whole lot of measures in 2019 that are starting to gain traction.

当然,我们可以为很多事情感到自豪。我在这里看这些产品。优质的产品线(该品牌享誉全球)在梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车方面排名第一。

Of course, there are many things that we can be proud of. I'm looking at these products here. Great product pipeline, a brand that is admired around the world, number one premium position on the Mercedes-Benz car side.

但是,如果我看一下财务结果以及我们的股票,这是我们不能满意的。当然不是我满意的东西。是的,我们说过要在2019年下半年稳定基础性能方面做到这一点,是的,我们做到了,正如您将在接下来的几分钟内在此处介绍数字时所看到的那样,这些措施在很大程度上发挥了作用,如果我进行实质性调整,然后整体看一下基本表现,是的,它并不比您看到的各项数字低。

But if I look at the financial results and where our stock is, this is not something that we can be satisfied with. And certainly not something that I am satisfied with. Yes its true, that we said that we would do in the second half of 2019 in terms of stabilizing the underlying performance, yes we did that, and as you will see when we present the number here in the next few minutes, that those measures have largely worked, and if I take out the material adjustments and I look at the underlying performance as a whole, yes, it is not as low as if you look at the all-in number.

但是它还不够好。这不是该公司应得的。这些品牌不应该代表什么。我们需要追求更多。我们了解我们正在转型,是的,未来几年,未来十年的汽车行业将发生根本变化。

But its not good enough. Its not what this company deserves. Its not what these brands should stand for. We need to aim for more. We understand that we’re in transformation, yes, the auto industry in the next years, next decade is going to change fundamentally.

该公司将从根本上改变。我们准备采取必要的行动和措施,以确保我们成为这一转变的赢家。

This company is going to change fundamentally. We’re prepared to take the actions and measures that we need to take to make sure that we come out as a winner of this transformation.

我对未来两到三年的繁重工作不抱任何幻想,我们需要做很多工作才能调整财务数字,释放现金流,以便我们能够为取得成功所需的投资提供资金电气化,以使我们的产品在数字化和软件架构方面取得领先。

I have no illusions about the next two to three years the number of heavy lifting that we’re going to have to do to put the financial number right, to unlock cash flow so that we can finance the investments that we need to get ahead in electrification, to get ahead in digitization and software architectures for our products.

我知道这不是一件容易的事。我环顾四周,我们见面,有时感觉像是从早到晚,在董事会和其他管理圈子中开会,不仅是我,这个管理团队还100%决心并致力于实现这一目标。

I know its not an easy task. I look around we meet, sometimes it feels like for morning till evening and meetings in the board and in other management circles, its not just me, this management team is 100% determined and dedicating to making this happen.

我们将恢复该公司的财务状况。我们将采取必须采取的措施以使自己回到正轨。我们已经启动了其中的一些,我们将逐个讨论它们。是的,这需要一些时间,因此,在某些问题上当然没有快速解决的方法,但是奉献精神是100%的。

We are going to restore the financial health of this company. We are going to take the measures that we have to take to get back on track. Some of them we have initiated, we’ll go through them division by division. Yes, it will take some time, so of course, on some of the issues there are no quick fixes, but the dedication is 100% there.

我将与这个管理团队全天候24/7协作,以使我们今天提出的数字有望成为一个转折点和我们在资本市场日提出的计划,其中包括在接下来三年中的转型成本,我们将其作为基础,并从那里开始重建。

I will work 24/7 with this management team to make that happen so that the numbers that we're presenting today hopefully represent somewhat of a turning point and the plan that we presented in the Capital Markets Day, with the transformational cost that is included over the next 3 years that we put that as a floor and that we start rebuilding from there.

因此,您看到的是坚定的人。我下定了决心,我们将实现这一目标,因为这家公司,这支团队和这些品牌值得他们这样做。这只是您对我的心态以及我想在这家公司中实现的目标的初步反映。

So you're seeing people that are determined. I am determined, and we are going to make this happen because this company, this team and these brands, they deserve that. That's just an initial reflection for you to get a feeling of my state of mind and what I want to achieve with this company.

如果我们接着看看发生了什么,让我们先来看一些重点,然后再回到我们所说的一些内容,实际上是从第二季度之后的路演开始。

If we then jump in and look at what happened, let's just look at some of the highlights first and also come back to some of the things that we said, actually, starting in our road show after Q2 that Harald I went on in July of last year.

是的,在下半年,我们扭转了梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车的销售状况,我们退缩了-在2019年上半年下降5%之后,我们又回到了增长的位置。是的,尽管我想强调一点,但我们保持在豪华车领域的第一位,并不是为了追求销量而设计的。展望未来,重要的是盈利增长。

Yes, in the second half of the year, we turned the sales around of Mercedes-Benz Cars, and we put our back - we put ourselves back in a position of growth after having a first half of 2019 where we were down 5%. And yes, we retained the number one position in the luxury segment, although I want to underline, it's not volume for the sake of volume that we're going for here. Going forward, profitable growth is what matters.

是的,我们确定的基本绩效以及我们在2019年下半年采取的措施,确实达到了我们预期的结果,并且达到了我们的投资目标和成本目标。尽管正如我在介绍性演讲中提到的那样,但从中长期来看,这并不是我们可以满意的基本表现。

Yes, the underlying performance that we did set out and the measures that we took in the second half of 2019, they did yield what we expect them to yield and we met our investment targets and our cost targets. Although, as I mentioned in my introductory speech, for the mid to long-term, that's not an underlying performance that we can be satisfied with.

是的,非常重要。我们保护了工业净流动资金。我们在年中的时候坐拥约60亿,并在绩效和营运资本方面采取措施,最终超过了我们在2019年底之前划定的线下的100亿。

And yes, very important. We protected our net industrial liquidity. We're sitting at about 6 billion at midyear and taking measures, both on the performance side and on the working capital side, we ended up above the 10 billion that we drew as a line in the sand for the end of 2019.

我们不仅为实现碳中和流动性做出了基本承诺。我们正在加快电气化道路上的活动,以增加我们在工业领域的活动。我们很快就可以解决。

We didn't only make fundamental commitments for a road towards carbon-neutral mobility. We are very quickly ramping up our activities in our industrial footprint in terms of putting electrification on the road. We get to that in a second.

当然,考虑与EBIT相关的现金流量的整体思路已经开始,因为接下来三年的部分情况是要提高现金转换率,尤其是在汽车方面。我们在资本市场日提出的2020年展望,今天将在这里确认。

And of course, the whole mindset of looking at the cash flow in relation to the EBIT has started because part of the story of these next 3 years is to get the cash conversion rate up, especially on the car side. And the 2020 outlook that we presented at the Capital Markets Day, we will confirm here today.

只看数字,销售额与去年持平。收入增长了50亿。息税前利润大幅下降。当然,我们会进行重大调整。如果剔除这些,息税前利润仍将下降,与去年的11.1相比处于10.3。在现金流量和现金转换率上反映出同样的情况,在这种情况下,它们仍然低于我们在中长期内寻求的水平。

Just looking at the numbers. Sales around last year's level. Revenue, up 5 billion. The EBIT is down significantly. Of course, we have material adjustments. If you take those out, the EBIT is still down, sitting at 10.3 compared to 11.1 last year. You have the same thing reflected in the cash flow with cash conversion rates, in this case, they are still below what we're seeking for the mid to long term.

我来首先分析公司旗下的汽车和面包车板块,然后再把卡车方面交给Martin。让我们看一下梅赛德斯·奔驰汽车中发生的一些事情。

If I step in and to the first division here with Cars and Vans, before I hand over to Martin on the Truck side. Let's look at a few things that happened in Mercedes-Benz Cars.

正如我已经提到的那样,领先的豪华车品牌很重要。这是我们第一次在中国排名第一,同时关注我们的折扣水平,以便我们在该市场上保持健康的价格溢价,大约70万辆。如果回想5年前或10年前,我认为我们无法想象中国发生了什么和在那里捕捉到的增长量。展望我们的战略,中国将仍然是该前瞻性战略中非常,非常重要的支柱。

As I already mentioned, leading luxury brand, perhaps one thing that is important. It was the first time that we took the number one position in China, while at the same time watching our discount level so that we keep healthy price premiums in that market, around 700,000 units. If I think back 5 or 10 years ago, I don't think we could have imagined what had happened in China and the amount of growth that we have been able to capture there. And looking forward for our strategy, China will remain a very, very important pillar of that forward-looking strategy.

我知道房间里有很多人在想,冠状病毒是怎么回事?发生了什么?昨天,我们又在北京重新缓慢地启动了工厂,并将逐步在生产和零售两方面增加产量。

I know that many in the room are thinking, what's going on with the coronavirus? What's happening? We started up slowly our factories again in Beijing yesterday and will gradually ramp up both on the production side and on the retail side.

我认为现在说这种冠状病毒的全部效果还为时过早。我只能说,我们在中国的合作伙伴以及我们在北汽与北京汽车的合作团队,为逐步恢复有序生产而付出的努力值得称赞。我很少看到实现这一目标的那种奉献精神和决心。

I think it's too early to say what the whole effect of this coronavirus will be. All I can say is that our partners in China and the team that we have there at BBAC with BAIC, the amount of effort that this team has put in to gradually get back into an orderly production manner must be applauded. I've seldom seen that kind of dedication and determination to make that happen.

我们谈到了去年,并进行了一些发布。我正在看我左边的那辆GLE,它没有像我们习惯于Mercedes那样平稳。我们在下半年解决了这些操作问题。现在,我们在塔斯卡卢萨(Tuscaloosa)工厂中处于稳定的运转状态,实际上一直处于历史最高水平,这正是我们为此准备的。

We talked about last year that we had, had some launches. I'm looking at the vehicle to my left here, the GLE that have not gone as smooth as we have gotten accustomed to at Mercedes. We fixed those operational problems in the second half of the year. We're now in stable operation in our Tuscaloosa factory, actually at all-time high levels, which is what we had tooled up for.

我们还与我们的合资伙伴英菲尼迪(Infinity)一起稳定了在墨西哥的业务。此外,我们还稳定了电池生产活动,该活动主要在德国进行,但分布在世界各地。我已经提到了碳中和流动性,稍后我们将讨论二氧化碳时,我会谈到这一点。

We've also stabilized our operations in Mexico, together with our joint venture partner, Infinity, there. And we have also stabilized our battery production activities that are mainly in Germany but are spreading around the world. I already mentioned carbon-neutral mobility, and I will get to that when we talk about CO2 later.

我们重新定义了Smart品牌业务。我们已将其移至新的合资企业。它将在中国境外完成。这些产品正在开发中,新产品将于2022年下半年重新定义智能。

We redefined the smart business model. We've moved it into a new joint venture. It's going to be done out of China. The products are in development, and smart will be redefined as of the second half of 2022 when the new products come.

当然,我要说的是,我们毫不犹豫地看着我们如何改善现金流,包括从去年6月底到12月底大幅减少库存量。

And of course, we have, I would say, left no stone unturned to look at how we can improve cash flow, including significantly reducing inventories from the end of June last year until the end of December of 2019.

金融数据。您已经在我们的新闻稿中看到了它们,销售额略有增加,收入略有增加。息税前收益受到重大调整的压力。如果看一下基础,则为5.8%,销售回报率为6.2%。

Financials. You saw them already in our press release, slightly up on sales, slightly up on revenues. The EBIT burdened about mainly by the material adjustments. If you look at the underlying, it was 5.8%, with a return on sales of 6.2%.

如果您查看从2018年业绩向2019年业绩的转变,那又是什么?是的,净数量结构和价格略微乐观,如果我们能顺利推出并满足高需求的产品供应,并不会像我们计划的那样积极,只是略微乐观。

If you look at the transition from the 2018 results to the 2019 result, what is it then? Yes, the net volume structure and pricing was a slight positive, not as positive as we had planned had we had smooth launches and more availability of products in high demand, but a slight positive nevertheless.

去年,约有6.7亿欧元的外汇汇率因为错误的方向给了我们一次重击。 10亿欧元的其他成本变化主要与我们投入产品中的技术以及我们为过渡到未来的技术所花费的费用有关。

Foreign exchange rates last year hit us relatively hard in the wrong direction with about 670 million. And 1 billion other cost changes are mainly in conjunction with the technology that we're putting into our products and the spend that we're doing for technologies going into the future that we need for transition.

并对公开的项目进行了评论,主要涉及柴油,也涉及与Takata的召回有关。如果剔除掉这些,您将得出我刚才提到的58亿欧元。

And the disclosed items have been commented on, mainly diesel-related but also with regard to the recall with Takata. If you take those out, you come to the 5.8 billion that I just mentioned.

然后我们来看看面包车。许多人对面包车的情况感到困惑。生意相当健康,也许在乘用车和卡车业务的阴影下有点,但是在戴姆勒家族中它是一个健康的成员。突然之间,这一年遭受了巨大的损失。 面包车怎么了?让我们来分解一下。

Then we come to Vans. Many have been puzzled with what's going on at Vans. Pretty healthy business, maybe a little bit in the shadow of the passenger car and the truck business, but a healthy member of the Daimler family. And suddenly, you end up with a year where you have a horrendous loss. What happened with Vans? Let's break that down.

首先,我们没有产品问题。实际上,我们达到了新的销售记录。我们推出的新sprinter车型非常受欢迎。这是一个很棒的产品。我们对几年前推出的V-Class进行了翻新,这确实使乘车人中那部分乘用车领域风靡一时,尤其是在欧洲,不仅在欧洲。而且,我们推出了该版本的第一个电动版本,引起了轩然大波,我们将于今年在市场上推出该版本。

First of all, we don't have a product problem. We actually reached a new sales record. The new sprinter that we launched has been very well received. It's a great product. We facelifted the V-Class, which we introduced a few years ago, and it's really taking that segment of the passenger car side of the people mover by storm, especially in Europe, but not only in Europe. And we presented the first electric version of that, has been quite a buzz around it, and we're going to launch that in the market this year.

同样在这里,我们在美国的查尔斯顿(Charleston)开了一家新工厂,面临着与美国其他工厂类似的挑战,现在该工厂也已经稳定下来,我们希望到2020年情况会更加健康,但是带来的启动成本使我们的成本负担加重。

Also here, we had a new plant starting up in Charleston in the United States, which faced similar challenges to the other operation in the U.S. That has also now been stabilized, and we're looking at a much more healthy situation in 2020, but that burdened our cost level with excessive start-up costs.

与我们在汽车上所做的事情一样,效率措施和现金流量措施也已全面采用。而且,我们必须做出一个艰难的决定,一个艰难而艰难的决定,那就是大约三年前我们推出的X-Class在市场上无法像我们预期的那样奏效。

And equal to what we're doing on Cars, efficiency measures and cash flow measures have been taking across the board. And we had to make one tough decision, one big and tough decision, that the X-Class that we launched now about 3 years ago is a product that didn't work in the market the way we had expected.

当您看待未来的投资时,是否会投入更多的资金用于那些您最初想到,但目前没有市场前景的事情?还是要一刀切?我们决定要一刀切。当然,这种硬性削减给去年的业绩带来了负担。

And when you look at investments going forward, are you going to put in more money into something where you don't have the market prospects that you originally thought? Or are you going to make a hard cut? We decided to make a hard cut. This hard cut, of course, burdened the results of last year.

如果看这些结果,销量就会增加;收入增加;息税前收益为负30亿,这是令人难以置信的数字,而前一年为3亿。即使我们进行调整,达到3亿,这也是我们无法满足的数字,不会像现在这样持续下去,我们将改变这一状况。我相信,我们采取的措施已经开始见效。

If I look at these results, sales up; revenue up; EBIT, minus 3 billion, an unbelievable number, coming from 300 million the year before. And even if we adjust it, we come to 300 million, a number that we cannot be satisfied with, a number that won't stay like that, something that we will change. And the measures that we have taken, I believe, are already starting to bear fruit.

也是在这里,看着过渡。销量结构、车辆售价,略有上升。外汇汇率虽然在货车方面不如在汽车方面重要,但仍然使我们付出了1.2亿欧元的代价。

Also here, looking at the transition. Volume structure net pricing, slightly up. Foreign exchange rates, not as significant on the van side as on the car side, but nevertheless, cost us 120 million.

由于已采取的措施,其他成本发生了变化。尽管我们在美国工厂的启动成本很高,但我们差一点保持了盈亏平衡。然后我们披露了一些项目,主要涉及柴油,X级和Takata停产。

Other cost changes due to measures that were taken. In spite of the fact that we had high start-up costs in the U.S. plant, we almost kept neutral, minus 30. And then we have the disclosed items with - mainly regard to diesel, the discontinuing of the X-Class and Takata.

加上这个数字,我们将达到2.84亿。这不是面包车应有的盈利水平,也不是面包车将保持的盈利水平。我们在2019年下半年启动的措施,将在2020年开始见效。

Putting that back up, we would get to 284 million. It's not a level of profitability that you should have with Vans, and it's not a level of the profitability that will stay with Vans. The measures that we initiated in the second half of 2019, they will start to bear fruit in 2020 already.

与汽车的故事类似,尽管我描述了我们将在2020年,2021年和2022年前进的艰难三年,但面包车仍将以与汽车相同的方式效仿,并且我们将会实现它。

And similar to the story of Cars, even though I described the tough 3 years that we have ahead of us, 2020, 2021 and 2022, the Vans will follow suit in the same fashion that we are doing with Cars, and we're going to put that right.

有了这些,我想交给马丁,他将为我们提供有关卡车在2019年的最新动态。马丁,交给您。

With that, I would like to hand over to Martin that will give us an update on what went on with Trucks in 2019. Martin, over to you.

Martin Daum(戴姆勒卡客车业务全球负责人)

谢谢您,奥拉,我们已经从乘用车和货车的世界变成了卡车的世界。到2019年为止,我们仍然是迄今为止全球最大的卡车制造商。我们都知道大小不是唯一重要的事情。归根结底是盈利能力。

Thank you, Ola, and we changed from the world of passenger cars and vans to the world of trucks. 2019, we continued to be the world's largest leading truck manufacturers by far. We all know that size is not the only thing that matters. It's ultimately profitability.

但另一方面,它为我们提供了独特的市场地位,我们在全球平台上具有全球影响力的战略,并通过尖端技术推动了行业发展,这些都在去年完成,在我看来,这为我们提供了一个出色的平台我们可以在将来建立成功。

But on the other side, it gives us a unique market positions, our strategy with global presence with global platforms and is driving the industry through cutting-edge technology, all worked out in the last year and gives us in my opinion a great platform on which we can build up our success in the future.

我们在北美自由贸易区市场表现强劲。在年初,我们决定不追随过热的市场,而随着产能的扩大,事实证明是正确的。然后,在下半年突然间,市场降温。尽管在零售方面,我们在第四季度还是一个相当强劲的季度,但是在所有竞争对手的工厂交付方面,在较弱的2020年份额中,我们有足够的能力来适应即将到来的情况,我不会称其为市场低迷,应是市场正常化。并在该细分市场中伴随着绝对可衡量的测试结果。

We had a strong performance in the NAFTA market. At the beginning of the year, we decided not to follow the overheated market, with expanding our capacities, which proved right. Then, in the second half, suddenly, the market cooled off. And we had in the fourth quarter, despite still on the retail side, a pretty strong quarter, but on the factory delivery side from all competitors for share during the weaker 2020, we were well equipped to adjust to that coming, I wouldn't call it market downturn, but market normalization. And that accompanied by absolutely benchmark results in this market segment.

因此,我们很幸运能够在自己的家族中拥有一个工具市场基准,在那里我们了解所有详细信息,您如何经营一家非常成功的卡车运输公司,我们只需要将其转换到世界其他地方,一切都会好起来的,这比说起来难得多。

So we have the blessing to have a tool market benchmark in our own family, where we know all the details, how you run a very successful trucking company, and we just have to transform that to other parts of the world and everything will be fine, which is more difficult to do than to say.

在欧洲,我们推出了新的Actros车型。它被授予2019年度卡车大奖,该尖端技术获得了巨大的荣誉和巨大的奖项。我们可以这样做-改进后视镜,提高燃油效率,并提高安全性和可见性,提高乘员率,但由于这么做,我们推迟了发布。

In Europe, we launched our new Actros. It was rewarded as Truck of the Year 2019, a huge honor and a huge award for that cutting-edge technology. We can do it for - of the mirrors, improving fuel efficiency, as well as safety as visibility, high take rates, but we had a delayed launch because we do it right.

如果您将全新的产品推向市场,那么您就不想遇到质量问题。您希望它具有绝对完美的画面,而这确实发生了。我们的产品接受度很高。我们有最好的回报。我们从客户那里得到了回报,我非常有信心这款卡车将在2020年真正撼动市场。

If you bring out into the market something completely new, you don't want to fly [ph] with quality problems. You want to have it absolutely picture perfect, and that happened. We have good take rates. We have the reward from the best. We have the reward from our customers, and I'm very confident that this truck will really rock the market in 2020.

另一方面,我们在欧洲市场环境明显恶化。我们必须降低德国工厂的生产率,也必须进行调整。我们已经习惯了周期性业务。我们已采取措施。他们的工作,基本上是一个很好的调整。

We had, on the other side, in Europe, a significant deterioration of the market environment. We have to reduce our production rates in our plant in Germany as well have to adjust. We are used to that cyclical business. We have the measures in place. They worked, was basically a good adjustment.

当涉及到我们行业也将要进行的转型时,我认为我们的设备非常精良。我们绝对承诺,我坚信在未来的几年中,将其设为10年,20年,零排放卡车的数量将比今天大得多,并且将主要来源于电力。而且,这些天我们一直在讨论这将是电动卡车还是燃料电池卡车?我的答案是,两者都是。这是一辆电动卡车。这只是一种不同的电源。在卡车运输中,在短距离内是电池供电,而在长距离上则是燃料电池。

When it comes to transformation that will come in our industry as well, I see us very well equipped. We are absolutely committed, and I am convinced that in a couple of years ahead, let it be 10, let it be 20, the number of CO2 for zero-emission trucks will be much, much bigger than today, will become the major source of electricity. And we have these days of discussion whether this will be battery electric or fuel-cell trucks? And my answer is, it's both. It's an electric truck. It's just a different power source. And in trucking, it will be both, in short distance rather battery electric on the longer distances rather fuel cell.

我们两者都在。我们在这两个领域都做好了充分的准备。我们工作。我们拥有eCitaro,这是一款已在市场上批量生产的出色电动汽车。这是非常好的客户结果。我们正在紧随FUSO方面的梅赛德斯-奔驰卡车,货运和eActros,而eCanter已经投放市场。

We are in both. We are in both areas very well prepared. We work. We have with the eCitaro, a great electric vehicle already in series production in the market. It's very good customer results. We are following suit with Mercedes-Benz Trucks, with freight and eActros, on the FUSO side with eCanter already on the market.

因此,电对我们来说是一个非常非常重要的领域,我不惧怕未来的岁月。我想说,2025年至2030年将是需要做好准备的关键年份。因此,我们有时间为我们和我们的客户做好准备。

So electric is a very, very important area for us, and I feel not afraid of the years to come. And I would say 2025 to 2030 will be the crucial years when you need to be prepared. So we have the time to prepare us and our customers for that.

其次,我们于2019年收购了位于弗吉尼亚州布莱克堡的Torc Robotics的多数股权,这使我们在卡车运输行业的自动驾驶领域脱颖而出。从去年夏天开始,我们就对卡车进行了路测,并取得了非常非常好的效果。需要牵引力。

Secondly, we acquired in 2019 the majority stake of Torc Robotics in Blackburg, Virginia, which jettisoned us on the top of the autonomous driving in the trucking industry. Since last summer, we have our trucks on the road testing and with very, very good results. It takes traction.

我们仅关注美国的高速公路行驶速度,因为我们认为,自动驾驶成功的关键在于,您的关注点是-您要消除所有分心的事物,所有困难的事都要切开,有什么可能。这足以获得一个可行且出色的业务案例,以支持我们客户的未来业务。因此,2019年是非常重要的一年,并设定了许多未来的方向,我在下一张幻灯片中谈到获利能力这一主题,我必须单击它。

We focus solely on the U.S. on-highway pace because, in our opinion, crucial for success in the autonomous driving is that your focus is - you cut every distraction away, everything which proves to be too difficult, cut the very focus of that, what is possible. That's enough to get already a viable and great business case that supports the future business of our customers. So 2019 was a very important year with lots of future directions set, and I come to the topic of profitability on the next slide, and I have to click it.

所以销售。就像我说的那样,当我们-如果您在下半年之后问我的时候-当然可以-我仍然可以预测2019年的销售额将创下创纪录的一年,但是北美市场和批发市场以及市场的降温。欧洲市场的降温使我们无法脱身-到2018年这一数字为489,000,仍然是很高的数字。

So sales. Sales 2019 slightly down, as I said, when we - if you would have asked me after the second half, it would be certainly - I would still predict a record year, but the cooling of the North American market and the wholesale side and the cooling off of the European market didn't allow us to get out with the - to be the 2018 numbers, 489,000, still a high number.

在收入方面,我们略高于上一年。这主要是由于美国的混合比例较高,而北美自由贸易区的税收减少了。因此,问题肯定就在我们这边。 EBIT,我们对EBIT不满意。这是一个不错的息税前收益。它伴随着大约1的现金转换率。因此我们处在一个健康的状态,但是它可以而且必须更多。

In revenue, we are slightly above prior year. That is mainly due to a higher mix of the United States and less tax in NAFTA. So the problem is certainly on our side. The EBIT, we are not content with the EBIT. It's not a bad EBIT. It's accompanied by a cash conversion rate from around 1. And so we are here in a healthy position, but it can and it has to be more.

EBIT增长的原因是什么?在数量结构方面,是我们从结构上获得的收益,即较高的NAFTA数量,但由于销售收入减少而导致亏损。因此,这基本上是一种洗礼,对于我们来说,外汇交易,主要是当我们将欧元汇率转换为欧元时的汇率影响,我们在此报告。因此,这是积极的。

What had been the reason for this EBIT development? On the volume structure side is what we gained on the structure, higher NAFTA volume, we lost through the lower number of sales. So that was basically a wash, Foreign exchanges for us, mostly the translation impact when we translate the U.S. dollar results into euros, which we report here. So that was a positive.

另一方面,在其他成本变化中,我们对材料成本持平,但是原材料的收益和效率却被吃光了,尤其是在北美自由贸易区。我们的固定成本是持平的,这是一个很好的成就,但这还不够。因此,我们将为此付出巨大的努力,以扭转困境,甚至获得较低的固定成本。

On the other side, in the other cost changes, we are flat on material cost, but the gain and efficiency was eaten up by raw material, especially in the NAFTA region. Our fixed cost, we had been flat, which was a good achievement, but it's not enough. So we'll work heavily on that one to turn it around and even get this lower fixed cost.

但是我们有两个负担,在这里有负4亿,哎。其中之一是我们不得不调整欧洲二手卡车库存,以适应更严格的市场条件。其次,我们大幅增加了对新技术,电动汽车和自动驾驶卡车的投资,这是其中的一部分。

But we had two burdens, which are covered here in the minus 400 million [ph]. One was we had to adjust our used truck inventory in Europe to the tighter market conditions. And secondly, we ramped up significantly our investments in new technologies, e-mobility and autonomous trucks, which is part of that number.

总而言之,这是一个玻璃杯,我宁愿考虑将其清空一半而不是将其装满,因为我们已经制定了明确的计划使该玻璃杯装满一半。我们拥有所有成分,我们拥有人才,我们拥有市场,我们拥有品牌声誉,我们拥有技术,我们拥有产品,没有什么可以阻止我们未来在这里展示出更好的数字。

All in all, it's a glass which I would rather consider half empty than half full because we have clear plans in place to make that glass half full. We have all the ingredients, we have the people, we have the markets, we have the brand reputation, we have the technology, we have the products, nothing should stop us to show here a much better number.

当我去第二个区域时,就是客车区域。客车继续是该市场领域盈利能力的基准,在除NAFTA之外的每个主要市场中,这都是真正的全球业务。我们的位置很好。我们保持领先地位。在我看来,我们拥有eCitaro,这是当今最便宜的电动客车,可以买到的尖端产品。

When I go to the second area, the bus area. Bus continues to be the benchmark in profitability in that market segment, truly global business in every major market, except NAFTA. We are very well positioned. We maintained the leading position. We have the eCitaro, in my opinion, a cutting-edge product out the best electric bus money can buy these days.

在西欧,第一批城市取得了非常非常好的成绩。我们在那里,到2020年我们将急剧增加,我们实现了目标利润,但是我们将继续努力提高效率。

For Western Europe, very, very good results in the first cities. We are there, and we're ramping up steeply in 2020, and we deliver on our target margins, but we continue with our efficiency efforts.

客车方面的财务状况与去年相同,相同的是,销售额增加了2,000,收入略有增加,息税前利润为283,这意味着ROS值为6%,在该行业中是基准,或者这里是价值现金转换费率甚至将资金设置为略大于1,这反映了我们在客车业务上利用卡车技术的可能性。

The financials on the bus side, about the same as last year, same, 2,000 more sales, slightly more revenue and an EBIT of 283, which translates in a ROS of 6%, which is benchmark in that industry or here is value cash conversion rates even fund [ph] slightly larger than one, which reflects the possibilities we have, leveraging on our technology on the truck side for the bus business.

数字是如何发展的?我很快通过它。我认为这是一切。然后,在其他成本变化上,我们再次减少了开发成本的资本化。我们的开发成本资本化率非常低。

How did the numbers develop? I go shortly through it. I think it was something of everything. And then on the other cost changes, we have, again, less capitalization of development cost. We have a very low rate of capitalization of development costs.

因此,未来都不会受到过去的负担,这基本上给了我们283这个结果。而且我在这里看到,即使在客车方面,盈利能力仍有改善的空间,我们非常投入。

So all, the future is not burdened by the past, and that basically gave us this result of 283. And I see here, even on the bus side, room for improvement on the profitability, and we are very committed.

接下来我将传递给Harald。

I can pass it on to Harald.

Harald Wilhelm( 戴姆勒全球CFO)

非常感谢Martin,您好,大家早上好。那么戴姆勒汽车在2019年发生了什么?首先,也是最重要的一点,是对核心业务的强大支持,这意味着DMO在2019年通过竞争性融资和租赁解决方案为集团的每一个分支机构提供了支持。这意味着到2019年底,投资组合将达到540万辆。

Thanks a lot, Martin, and hello, and good morning to everybody. So what happened in Daimler Mobility in 2019? First and foremost, again, a strong support to the core business, which means each and every second vehicle of the group were got supported by DMO in 2019 via competitive financing and leasing solutions. That means the portfolio is now at a 5.4 million vehicles at the end of 2019.

同时,戴姆勒交通集团获得了可观的回报。我想强调一下。我的意思是,尤其是在由于监管要求而不得不投入额外股本的背景下,尤其是在德国和中国,约为20亿欧元,这意味着股本比率从2018年的8%升至2019年底的接近9%。

At the same time, attractive returns got generated in Daimler Mobility. I'd like to highlight that. I mean, in particular, against the backdrop that we had to put additional equity due to the regulatory requirements, in particular, in Germany and in China for approximately €2 billion, which means that the equity ratio moved from roughly 8% in 2018 to now closer to 9% by the end of 2019.

还有什么?我们在2019年期间保留了审慎的风险管理。总的来说,我认为,这意味着允许我们将净信贷损失控制在一个合理的范围内。我的意思是,我们采取了温和的措施。得益于这一审慎的政策,这绝对是我们要保持前进的方向。

What else? We retained the prudent risk management in the course of 2019. Overall, I think, I mean that allowed us to contain the net credit losses in a reasonable envelope. I mean, we had a moderate move. Thanks to that prudent policy, and that's definitely what we want to retain moving forward.

当然,另一个亮点是与宝马在2019年共同创立了NOW系列。首先,在业务方面,客户群正在良好地扩展。所以我想,我的意思是那边取得了良好的进展。同时,我们查看了-我的意思是全年进行设置。我们将活动划分为三个垂直领域:乘车,汽车共享,停车和充电。我们明确为每一项制定策略。我的意思是,我们明确同意共同制定业务计划。因此,我们显然已准备好在该领域内采取行动。

Another highlight certainly was the creation of the NOW family jointly with BMW in 2019. First, on the business side, the customer base is expanding nicely. So I think, I mean good progress is made over there. At the same time, we looked at - I mean the set up throughout the year. We prioritized the activities into three verticals: the ride-hailing, the car sharing, the parking and the charging. We clearly set strategy for each of these. We clearly agreed jointly, I mean, the business plans. So we're clearly set for action in this field moving forward.

总体而言,让我向您保证戴姆勒的移动性,效率和效率也得到提高,我的意思是,数字化工作是首要任务,当然是为了利益,方便我们的客户群,同时也要提高效率。底线,这有助于提高2019年戴姆勒移动的成本收入比率。

Overall, let me reassure you also Daimler Mobility, efficiency and gaining efficiency also by, I mean, digital effort is on the top of the agenda, certainly for the benefit, for the convenience of our customer base, but also to drive efficiencies in the bottom line, and that helped to improve the cost income ratio in Daimler Mobility in 2019.

看数字。好吧,新业务增长了3%,主要集中在欧洲,北美和南美,目前的合同额为1630亿欧元。因此20亿的外汇影响也帮助增加了90亿的支持。我要强调的是,这种情况主要发生在欧洲和美洲。在息税前收益方面,我们看到息税前收益为21亿欧元。从基础上看,我们认为这一数字为1.8%。

Looking at the numbers. Well, the new business grew by 3%, chiefly in Europe, North and South America, the contract volume now is at 163 billion. So that support of 9 billion increase was also helped by an FX impact of 2 billion. I would emphasize that happened mainly in Europe and in the Americas. On the EBIT side, we see the EBIT reported at 2.1 billion. On an underlying basis, we see that at 1.8%.

让我简短地解释一下。我的意思是我们从2018年到2019年的数字。首先,我的意思是,销量影响是有利的。另一方面,我的意思是信用风险适度增加。正如我之前概述的那样,我们在NOW系列的扩展方面投入了更多的资金。这就是顺风车。然后,我的意思是说,有很多人过一次,所以我的意思是说,现在建立NOW家族需要7亿。

Let me explain that shortly. I mean how we came from 2018 to the 2019 numbers. First, I mean, the volume impact was favorable. We had, on the other side, I mean the moderate increase of the cost of credit risk. As I just outlined before, we invested more in the scaling of the NOW family. That's what sits here as a tailwind. And then we had, I mean, numerous one-offs, so I mean 700 million from the creation of the NOW family.

由于进行了重组和重新安排优先级,我们不得不记录400的减值,并记住2018年我们从收费公路中获得了4亿欧元的资本收益。因此,这里解释了700个已披露项目,但300个调整项也是如此,这意味着到2019年底或2019年,我们看到调整后的股本回报率为13%。

Due to the restructuring, the reprioritization, we had to record impairments of 400 and bear in mind that in 2018 we had a 400 million capital gain from the Toll Collect. So that explains here the disclosed items of 700, but as well the adjustments of 300, which means by the end of 2019 or 2019, we see the adjusted return on equity at 13%.

2019年集团一级发生了什么?首先,新的小组结构已于11月1日生效。我想您知道,这样做的好处我们对其进行了概述。它们将为业务提供更大的灵活性,更多的授权,因此,给业务带来更快的速度和效率,这对于应对会议开始时Ola概述的挑战以及总体而言至关重要,也将为我们未来提供更多的战略灵活性。

What happened at the group level in 2019? First and foremost, the new group structure got implemented, went live on November 1st. The benefits of that, I think you know, we outlined them. They will give more flexibility, more empowerment, therefore, more speed and efficiency into the business, which is crucial against the challenges Ola outlined at the beginning of the meeting and overall, will also give us more strategic flexibility for the future.

同时,我们回过头来,也了解了母公司在反对该部门的更多授权方面的作用。因此,它不应该与今天的情况相同,这意味着我们将母公司的角色集中在治理,资本配置和进入金融市场上。尚未实现,但我们明确决定了这一点,我们正在向前迈进。

At the same time, we went back and also had a look at what is the role of the ParentCo, against more empowerment of the division. So it shouldn't be just the same as to what it is today, which means we focused the role of the ParentCo on governance, on capital allocation and access to the financial markets. That's not implemented, but we clearly decided on that, and we're moving forward.

但是,我认为我们已经可以在母公司级别实现2019年的第一个收益。好吧,我在公司工作的时间并不长,但是据我所知,已经有很多年了,据报道10年前。这是我们第一次看到母公司的成本变化实际上逐年下降,这意味着2019年总部的成本比2018年降低了4%。此外,还有总部相比2018。所以您可以看到,我们正在移动,我们开始移动。

However, we could already achieve, I think, I mean, first benefits in the course of 2019 at the ParentCo level. Well, I'm not that long with the company, but as I'm told that since quite many years, I'm reported 10 years. It's the first time we see that cost evolution of the ParentCo going down actually year-on-year, which means a 4% cost less in headquarter in 2019 than in 2018. And that comes along also with a couple of hundred [ph] people less in the headquarter than in 2018. So you can see, we are moving, we started to move.

关于集团财务,总结一下,我的意思是,我们在部门方面看到的数字,我们看到息税前利润调整为103亿欧元。我认为这很重要。因此,我们非常强调了这一点,因为这是我们观察基本性能的基础。这也是期待的基础。

On the group financials, just to wrap up, I mean, the numbers we saw at the division side, we see the EBIT adjusted at 10.3 billion. I think that's important. So we highlight that quite a lot, as this is a base how we see the underlying performance. That's the base also to look forward.

受重大调整的影响,报告的净利润为43亿欧元,这意味着净利润为27亿欧元,我们还记录了递延所得税资产的减值。

The reported is at 4.3 billion, impacted by material adjustments, and that translates into a net profit of 2.7 billion, where we also recorded some impairment on deferred tax assets.

总而言之,扣除少数股权后,我们的每股收益为2.22欧元。税率为29.3%。这是中期的预期范围。展望未来,您应该期望税率在28%到30%之间。

All in all, after minority interest that leaves us with an earnings per share of €2.22. The tax rate is at 29.3%. This is in the expected range for the midterm. Looking forward, you should expect the tax rate to be at about 28% to 30%.

在自由现金流方面,是的,我认为我们实现了在下半年转向现金流的目标。全年为14亿欧元。其中特别包括向德国斯图加特当局支付的9亿欧元。

On the free cash flow side, yes, I think we achieved a goal to turn the cash flow in the second half of the year. Full year was a 1.4 billion positive. That includes, in particular, the payment to the German authorities in Stuttgart of 900 million.

2019年调整后的自由现金流为27亿欧元。有了这个,我们可以将工业净流动资金锁定在110亿欧元,这是我们2019年的目标。

The adjusted free cash flow is at 2.7 billion for 2019. And with this, we could lock in the net industrial liquidity at 11 billion, which was our target for 2019.

看着EBIT走。在集团层面,我认为我们触及了关键构建底部。如果您只是想将其包装在全球范围内,我认为我们产品的需求仍将持续强劲。这是我们可以看到的,也反映在定价中,也可以在混合中反映出来。因此,在集团层面上是4亿顺风。

Looking at the EBIT walk. On the group level, I think we touched base on of the key building blocks. If you just want to wrap it up globally, I think continued strong demand remain for our products. That's what we can see reflected also in the pricing, also in mix. So that, at the group level is a 400 million tailwind.

但是,在外汇方面,特别是对冲活动,已被2019年生效的对冲利率补偿或被冲销。然后,是的,我的意思是,由于对新技术,未来和更高产品的投资成本方面,我们的成本同比增长了15亿欧元。

However, on the FX side, in particular to hedging activity, that got compensated or were washed out by the hedge rates effective in 2019. And then, yes, I mean, due to the investments into new technology, into the future and higher product costs, we have a headwind of cost increase of 1.5 billion year-on-year.

这是什么意思?我们对未来的努力,对技术的努力,对产品的努力,我们无法在19年的第一线实现。因此,它等待着最终收益。这就是为什么我们对这种性能不满意的原因。这就是为什么我们必须比19年代开始更加努力地应对成本。我们显然将其与我们在2019年记录的众多披露项目和调整分开了。

What does it mean? The efforts we are putting into future, the efforts we are putting into technology, the efforts we are putting into our products, we cannot materialize in '19 in the top line. And therefore, it waits on the bottom line. That's why we're not satisfied with this performance. That's why we have to attack the costs harder, even harder than what we started to do in '19. And we clearly are separating that from the numerous disclosed items and the adjustments which we recorded in 2019.

谈论这些调整。在这里,您可以了解它们的详细信息,总计60亿,其中54亿与我们对真实和公平风险的评估或从当今的角度对法律和监管程序的评估有关。因此还包括Takata安全气囊。

Talking about these adjustments. Here, you have the details of them, 6 billion all in all, 5.4 billion of them are related to the - our assessment of the true and fair risk or from today's perspective related to legal and regulatory proceedings. So that also includes the Takata airbag.

正如Ola之前指出的那样,另一章就在X-Class的停靠点上,并且在重组部分中,您可以从之前概述的重组中看到NOW系列的调整。在最后一列中,您将看到NOW家族创建带来的资本收益。

Then the other chapter is on the stop of the X-Class, as Ola pointed out already before, and also in the p of the restructuring, you see the adjustments on the NOW family from the restructuring outlined before. And in the last column, you see the benefit of the capital gain from the NOW family creation.

只是警告,之后我们再进行问答。如您所知,关于法律诉讼,我们无法进一步评论,因为这些诉讼仍在进行中,进一步的信息将包含在下周发布的年度报告中。

Just a warning before we move into the Q&A later. On the legal proceedings, as you know, we cannot comment further as these are ongoing proceedings, and further information will be contained in the annual report, which is coming out next week.

看净流动性。从IFRS 160亿的调整开始,我们的年初是130亿,而不是160亿,所以13年-130亿是这一年的起点。那怎么了?全部自由现金流为14亿欧元。

Looking at the net liquidity. We started the year with 13 billion, not 16, as you know, about the adjustment from the IFRS 16. So 13 year - 13 billion being the starting point for the year. Then what happened? The free cash flow of 1.4 billion all in all.

我们在这里可以看到什么?我指的是来自运营的现金70亿欧元,包括之前指出的9亿欧元的和解金。然后是营运资金的负担。上一季度实际发生了什么?库存大幅减少。因此,基本上,从一年的总和来看,我们可以从年初开始平整库存,直到年底。

What can we see here? Cash from operations, I mean, 7 billion, including the settlement payment of 900 million as pointed out before. Then a working capital burden. What actually happened in the last quarter? A significant decrease in inventories. So with this over the year, all in all, basically, we could level out the inventory beginning of the year until the end of the year.

我们在12月的销售强劲。但是随后我们降低了生产水平,因此我们遇到了一些来自应付账款的不利因素和/或无法从12月的销售中收回所有现金,这意味着我们在12月的应收账款和应付账款中留下了营运资金的痕迹,这就是为什么您会在这里看到一笔21亿的费用。肯定地,向前迈进,我们想对此进行攻击并在此方面做得更好。

We had a strong sales in December. But then we leveled down the production level, so we had some headwinds coming from payables and/or could not collect all of the cash from the sales in December, which means we left traces in the working capital in December from receivables and payables that's why you see a 2.1 billion charge here. Moving forward, definitely, we want to attack that and do better on that.

我认为,关于此的另一个关键观察是与折旧水平相比的投资。您仍然会看到,由于未来有106亿的巨额投资,现金流因投资和折旧水平的不匹配而负担沉重,重点是资本分配。我的意思是,仔细研究不断发展的投资,我们将缩小这一差距。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,您会看到已支付的股息。因此,我们只有110亿欧元的净工业流动资金。

The other key observation, I think, on this is the investment compared to the depreciation level. You still see that due to the significant investments in the future at 10.6 billion, the cash flow is burdened by the mismatch of the investment and the depreciation level, with the emphasis on capital allocation. And scrutinizing, I mean, the investments moving forward, we will bring that gap closer together. And then last but not least, you see the dividend, which got paid. So that leaves us with 11 billion of net industrial liquidity.

现在让我们转到2019年度股东大会的股息提议。首先,股息的基础显然是报告的净利润27亿欧元,以及每股收益2.22欧元。

Now let's move to the dividend proposal to the AGM for 2019. First, the basis for the dividend, obviously is the net profit reported, the 2.7 billion, and the earnings per share of €2.22.

在CMD期间,我想我们说过兑现公司40%的派息比率的股息政策。同时,我们希望确保要支付的任何股息均由产生的现金支持。

During the CMD, I think we said we want to honor the dividend policy of the company with a 40% payout ratio. At the same time, we want to make sure that any dividend to be paid is supported by cash generated.

好吧,我认为这里的报价为每股0.90欧元,因为与前几年相比下降了很多,但恰恰反映了这一点。它兑现了股息政策方面的承诺,并得到了所产生的现金的支持。

Well, I think the proposal here of €0.90 a share, recognizing that it is a significant drop compared to previous years, however, exactly reflects that. It honors a commitment in terms of the dividend policy, and it is supported by the cash generated.

我认为这是对投资者群体的重要信息,不仅是股权投资者方面,而且尤其是债务方面,因为这表明我们希望保护自己。我的意思是,正如我们多次讨论的那样,资产负债表为100亿欧元。

And I think that's an important message for the investor community, not only the equity investor side, but in particular, also the debt side as it demonstrates that we want to protect. I mean, the balance sheet was a 10 billion nil, as we discussed several times.

同时,我认为这也表明了我们对业务的现金产生潜力的信心,即在未来的基础上(即2020年及以后)。

At the same time, I think it also demonstrates the confidence we have into the cash generation potential of the business on an underlying basis moving forward, i.e., for 2020 and beyond.

我无法确定的一件事,当我们讨论时,您会看到它,我的意思是,明显地,指导是与法律风险相关的套现确切时间。但是,我们一方面要保护股东的回报和对未来的投资,另一方面要保护100亿欧元的资产负债表。

One thing I cannot size, and you will see it when we discuss, I mean, the guidance, obviously, is the exact timing of cash-out related to legal risks. However, we altogether want to protect, on the one side, the return to shareholders and the investments into our future and protect the balance sheet of 10 billion.

现在转到展望2020年的指导部分。首先,我真的想提醒您仔细阅读这些假设,这些关键假设已在页面顶部规定。为了节省时间,我想完全不阅读它们,但是我认为它们尤其重要,尤其是在当今的当前商业环境中。

Now moving to the outlook to the guidance p for 2020. First, I really like to remind you to read carefully the assumptions, the key assumptions which are stipulated on the top of the page. In the interest of time, I think I will not read them out, I mean, altogether, but I think they are important, in particular, in the current business environment in these days.

在此基础上,我们对2020年梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车的销售预期如何,略低于2019年的水平。这基本上反映了全电动智能商业模式的转变,也反映了与冠状病毒情况相关的有限风险,这可能会影响供应链以及中国市场。

On that basis, what do we see for sales at Mercedes-Benz Cars for 2020, slightly below 2019 level. That is basically reflecting the changeover in the full electric smart business model, and it also reflects some limited risk associated to the situation on the coronavirus, which could impact the supply chain as well as the Chinese markets.

但是,另一方面,我认为在这方面,我们真的很坚强。由于我们在塔斯卡卢萨(Tuscaloosa)和阿瓜斯卡连特斯(Aguascalientes)的业务增加了这些SUV的可用性,因此我们预计对全新的GLB,GLE,GLS会有强劲的需求。

However, on the other side, and I think here, we really feel strong about that. We expect a strong demand for the brand-new GLB, the GLE, the GLS due to the increased availability of these SUVs from our operations in Tuscaloosa, as well as in Aguascalientes.

关于面包车的销售,我们预计会略有下降。我认为在卡车上略有下降,但重要的是要提醒您,北美自由贸易区以及欧洲的下降幅度更大,而我们预计亚洲将比2019年有所改善。

On the sales of the Vans, we expect a slight decrease. On the Trucks, Martin, I think, a slight decrease, but it's important to remind that a more material decrease in the NAFTA and also in Europe, whereas we expect Asia to improve compared to 2019.

在客车上,由于良好的产品组合和市场趋势,我们看到略有增长。与整体业务保持一致的DMO应该会出现一些小幅下降,并且合同总量保持稳定。

On the Buses, we see a slight increase because of a good product portfolio and market trends. DMO, in line with the rest of the business should see some slight decline with overall stable contract volume.

现在在销售回报上。让我在这里说得很直率。我们确认我们11月份在CMD上所说的话。我们说了什么我们希望在乘用车和面包车上达到4%以上的目标。我们希望卡车达到5%以上。我们希望在戴姆勒移动业务上实现超过12%的目标。

Now on the return on sales. Let me put that very blunt and straight here. We confirm what we had been saying at the CMD in November. What did we say? We want to achieve more than 4% on passenger cars and vans. We want to achieve more than 5% on the trucks. We want to achieve more than 12 on Daimler Mobility.

这就是我们今天在这里所说的。我认为,对于德国的披露要求有一些特殊性,在这些特殊性中,我们不能拥有更多的信息,但这是完全相同的信息。如果您对此有任何疑问,请在此会议室中进行澄清,但这是我想今天在这里传达的信息。

This is what we're saying here today. There are some specificities, I think, to German disclosure requirements where we cannot have the more than, but it's exactly the same message. If anybody of you has a question on that, please, let's clarify it here in this room, but this is exactly, I mean, the message that we want to give here today.

我们在CMD期间已经提到的第二点是,我们希望在基础上进行指导。因此,这就是我们为提高销售回报率和现在的股本回报率所做的工作,但是我们也为调整后的现金转换率而做。

The second point, which we alluded to already during the CMD was that we want to guide on an underlying basis. So that's what we're doing for return on sales and return on equity now moving forward, but we also do it for cash conversion rate on an adjusted basis.

因此,这是什么意思?对于乘用车和货车,为4%至5%。让我提醒您什么是19至20的关键演变。那么关键的构建模块是什么?我的意思是,从今天的角度来看,我们在CMD中展示的步行路线是完全有效的。

So this being said, what does it mean? For passenger cars and vans, 4% to 5%. Let me remind you what is the key evolution, '19 to '20. So what are the key building blocks? The walks, which we showed in the CMD are perfectly valid, I mean, from today's standpoint.

我们看到我们的产品需求旺盛,因此应该对产品的数量和价格产生有利影响,但是较高的折旧率会给二氧化碳带来很大的阻力。我们正在努力通过成本措施,材料成本,固定成本降低,人员成本降低来补偿2020年,但是我们不能对此进行过度补偿,这就是说,我们看到利润率在19年和20年之间基本上下降了100个基点左右。

We see a strong demand for our products, so that should have favorable volume mix and pricing impact, but the headwinds from CO2 from the higher level of depreciation are material. We're trying to compensate that in 2020, with the cost measures, the material cost, the fixed cost reduction, the personnel cost reduction, but we cannot overcompensate it, and that's we see the margin dropping basically by 100 basis points or so between '19 and '20.

我的意思是,我们需要2到3个月才能完成工作。因此,目标得到了(行动,计划,分配给团队的问责制的)支持。因此,是的,我们为确保在2020年实现这些目标而不断成熟。

What is different that we moved ahead, I mean, 2 to 3 months. And so the targets have been supported by actions, by plans, accountabilities assigned to the teams. And therefore, yes, we went ahead in maturing, in securing these targets for 2020.

在戴姆勒卡车和客车方面,为5%。同样,这里发生了什么? NAFTA和欧洲的预期市场下降幅度很大,我们希望通过固定成本降低,Actros 5产品在市场上的可获得性以及通过改善产品的可变和材料成本来尽可能地弥补这一损失。

On the Daimler Trucks and Buses side, 5%. Again, what happens here? The expected market drop in NAFTA and Europe is significant, and we want to compensate that as much as possible by fixed cost reduction, by the product availability of the Actros 5 in the market and also by improving the variable and the material cost of the product.

在戴姆勒移动公司,12%。那是什么意思呢?我们看到-我的意思是,该数量与上一年基本持平。我们必须从信贷风险正常化的成本以及当前的环境中可能会受到一点压力的情况中预期到一些不利因素。这就是为什么我们看到2020年下降约100个基点的原因。

At Daimler Mobility, 12%. And what does that mean? We see - I mean, the volume roughly in line with previous year. We have to expect a bit of a headwind from the - from a cost of credit risk normalization, as well as in current environment maybe a bit of margin pressure. That's why we see that roughly 100 basis points down for 2020.

关于调整后的现金转换率,首先,-是什么意思?调整后的部门级的息税前现金流CFBIT高于部门级调整后的EBIT。再次,如果对此有任何疑问,让我们在此处消除它。

On the cash conversion rate adjusted, first, in terms of - I mean, what is it? It is the CFBIT at the division level on an adjusted basis over the EBIT adjusted at the division level. Again, if there is any question on that, I mean, let's kill that and knock it off here.

我们希望2020年在哪里,对于汽车和面包车,在0.7到0.9之间,在卡车和公共汽车上在0.8到1之间。所以我要说的是与2019年相比,一些材料改善。我们要如何到达那里?优先投资。我们在所有运营计划中都设定了投资上限,我们将在2020年进一步利用营运资金。

Where is it, where we want to be in 2020, was it, for Cars and Vans, in the corridor of 0.7 to 0.9, and on the trucks and buses between in 0.8 and 1. So I would say compared to 2019, some material improvement. How do we want to get there? Prioritization of the investments. We put the investment cap into place in all of the operational plans, and we will work on the working capital further in 2020.

在集团层面是什么意思?因此,首先要讨论组级别的基础性能。显然,我的意思是,三个单位都下降了。因此,在集团层面,我们应该看到相同的结果。因此,我认为我们之前曾讨论过。我不需要重复。

What does it mean at the group level? So first on the underlying performance at the group level. Obviously, I mean, the three units are down. So at the group level, we should see the same. So we discussed that, I think, before. I don't need to repeat that.

但是,如果我们查看报告的息税前利润,我们会看到息税前利润显著上升,这主要是由于2019年记录的重大材料调整。如果我查看报告的息税前利润至2020全年,我们预计将从人员成本削减计划中发生重组费用,约为12亿欧元。在现阶段,我们的总体计划规模略高于20亿欧元。

If we look at the EBIT reported, however, we see the EBIT reported significantly up, and that is chiefly due to the significant material adjustments recorded in 2019. If I look into the EBIT reported to full [ph] 2020, we expect restructuring charges from the personnel cost reduction program in the order of magnitude of €1.2 billion. At this stage, we size the overall program slightly above €2 billion.

展望2020年工业业务的自由现金流。我们一定会继续在未来对我们的产品和技术进行重大投资。但是2019年是一个高峰。因此,我们为2020年设定了上限,显然,未来几年我们将在优先次序方面做出更多努力。

Looking at the free cash flow of the industrial business in 2020. We will definitely continue to put a significant and important investment into our products and technologies for the future. But 2019 was a peak. So we cap it for 2020 and we'll put additional efforts in terms of prioritization for the years beyond, obviously.

对于2020年的现金流量,我们可以说将大大高于2019年的水平。我必须对此作一个例外,那就是可能与法律和监管程序相关的现金套现,而没有对此的最终解决方案,我们不能根据我们在书中记录的当前大小来给出任何时间安排。关于重组费用,我刚才已经提到过,我们希望看到它们在2021年及以后(而不是2020年)影响现金流量。

What we can say for the cash flow all in for 2020 that it will be significantly above 2019 level. I have to make one exception to it, which is the possible cash out related to legal and regulatory proceedings just as absent a final settlement on this, we cannot give any timing of them based on the current sizing as we recorded it in the books. On the restructuring charges, I just mentioned before, we'd rather see them hitting the cash flow in 2021 and beyond, not in 2020.

因此,我可以按照此处的指南进行总结,我们清楚地将其与CMD所说的保持一致。在这里和今天,我们确认了这些目标。但是我们采取了行动来保护它们。

So I can wrap it up on the guidance here, we clearly put the line in the sand with what we said at the CMD. Here and today, we confirm these targets. But we initiated actions to secure them.

而且,我想,这就是您要谈论的前进方向,Ola。

And, I think, that's what you want to talk about moving forward now, Ola.

Ola Källenius ( 戴姆勒全球CEO)

谢谢,哈拉德。因此,如果总结一下,2020年议程是什么?如果您愿意,今年我们的工作清单上是什么?我们已经在成本效率,成本重组,现金方面谈论了很多。

Thank you, Harald. So if we sum up, what is the 2020 agenda? What's on our jobs list, if you will, for this year? Much of this we have talked about in terms of cost efficiencies, cost restructuring, cash.

除了我们已经提到的内容外,也许我想强调两件事。一方面,由于大多数不利因素是通过电气化和采取减少产品中二氧化碳的措施来应对的,因此,在材料成本方面,我们必须付出最大的努力来弥补这一点。

Maybe two things I want to highlight beyond what we have mentioned already. On the one hand, because most of the headwind is on the variable side through electrification and measures that we need to reduce CO2 on our product, that means it's on the material cost side that we have to do the most work to outweigh this.

不用说,在2019年,我们与供应商以及我们自己的工程部门一起启动了一项全面计划,以找到改善产品,降低成本和降低复杂性的方法。

Needless to say, in 2019, we started a comprehensive program together with our suppliers and also in our own engineering to find ways to improve products and take cost out and complexity out.

但是,除了着眼于未来几年的计划运用之外,我们正在寻找新的架构来从根本上重新考虑产品的复杂性。当我们引入2024、2025及以后的新架构时,这些事情将在未来进一步产生结果。但这是双重工作,不仅着眼于短期,而且着眼于长期来看我们的业务模型需要什么。因此,两者都在发生。

But next to that immediate exercise, which is focused on the next few years, we are looking for new architectures to fundamentally rethink complexity of our products. Those are things that will yield results further down the road when we introduce new architectures 2024, 2025 and beyond. But it is a dual exercise, not just focusing on the short term, but looking at what does our business model require in the long term. So both is happening.

正如马丁所说,我认为,特别是对于欧洲卡车方面,要提高Actros卡车和其他产品的可变成本,这是恢复卡车健康盈利能力的关键支柱之一。

And as Martin mentioned, I think, especially for the European truck side, to improve the variable cost of the Actros truck and the other products there is one of the key pillars to restore healthy profitability for trucks.

关于人员成本削减和其他措施,SG&A当然是全面的。我们现在已经启动了减少人员成本的计划。我们为自己设定了一个目标,即我们在11月的资本市场日与您会面时传达的目标是,到2022年底使该集团的运营成本减少14亿欧元。

With regard to personnel cost reductions and other measures, SG&A, it's, of course, an across the board. We have now initiated the program for personnel cost reductions. We have set ourselves a target that we communicated when we met with you at the Capital Markets Day in November to have a run rate reduction of €1.4 billion for the group by the end of 2022.

我们与劳方和社会伙伴进行了谈判,以建立一个框架来执行该任务。如果没有该框架,您可以在不替代波动的情况下做很多事情,等等,当然,我们可以单方面采取的所有这些措施已经开始。

We negotiated with our - with the labor side with our social partners to put together a framework how to execute this. Many things you can do without that framework in terms of not replacing fluctuation and so on, of course, all of those measures that we can take unilaterally, we have already started.

但这还不够。我们也需要用于终止的软件包,此过程将从今年春季开始,并将在接下来的几年中继续进行。同样,这已经启动,并将在2020年和2021年作为优先事项。

But that won't be enough. We need packages for termination as well, and this process is starting now this spring and will continue for the next couple of years. So also, this has been initiated and will be a priority in 2020, but also in 2021.

关于二氧化碳有很多讨论和推测。在11月,我向您展示了根据NEDC在138年第19末估算的平均机队数量的图片。实际上,它们的最终数量为137,我们需要降至目标。我们知道欧盟的通用目标是95。

There has been much discussion and speculation on CO2. In November, I showed you a picture of an estimated fleet average based upon NEDC at the end of '19 of 138. They actually ended up at 137, and we need to get down to a target. We know that the generic target for the EU is 95.

根据产品的大小和产品组合,每个汽车制造商的数字都不相同。在我们的例子中,它将是100以北。我们只能在此阶段根据计划中的销售情况进行估算。但是,实际销售额将确定最终数量。

Based upon the size of your products and your portfolio, that number is different for each carmaker. In our case, it will be north of 100. We can only make an estimation at this stage based upon the sales profile that we have in our plan. But the actual sales will then determine what the final number is.

我们如何做到这一点?全面的电气化。我们应该在很多年前,当我们开始时,这些项目早些时候开始吗?是的,我们应该。在过去的2年,2.5年中,我们是否显著加大了工作力度,以确保我们能够实现这些目标,并在工程方面和生产方面都投入双倍的资金,以实现这一目标?是的我们有。就电气化产业化而言,我们正在进入非常重要的一年,以进入目标地区。

How are we doing this? It's electrification across the board. Should we, many years ago, when we had - when we started these projects started earlier? Yes, we should. Have we, in the last 2, 2.5 years, significantly, significantly ramped up our efforts to make sure that we can meet these targets and double down on investment, both on the engineering side and also on the production side to be able to meet this? Yes, we have. We are looking at a very, very big year in terms of industrialization of electrification to get into the target vicinity.

因此,正如我提到的,在11月,有可能实现目标。我意识到2020年和2021年是我们最具挑战性的一年。对于2022年及以后的产品线,我感到更加自在。

So as I mentioned, in November, it is possible to get to target achievement. I realize that 2020 and 2021 are our most challenging years. I feel much more comfortable with 2022 and beyond with the product pipeline that we have.

但我也想明确指出,从原则上讲,我们已经甩开了思想上的转变。我们正在迈向二氧化碳中和的道路。这是我们业务战略的核心要素。我们将执行它。我们现在做出的每一个架构决定都是电子的。因此从心理上讲,我们处于另一端,尽管在工业上,2020年和2021年的任务艰巨。

But I also want to state clearly, as a matter of principle, we have flicked the mental switch. We are on the road to CO2-neutral mobility. This is a core element of our business strategy. We're going to execute it. Every architecture decision that we make now going forward is electric first. So mentally, we're on the other side, although we have industrially a big task for 2020 and 2021.

这个工业任务是什么样的?在电动汽车上,我们正在提高EQC的产量。我们有非常健康的需求。如果您整体看一下xEV,那么,一个完全电动化的智能产品,即EQC-今年即将推出的EQV,即使我们明年推出它,我们也会向市场展示EQA,以及一系列其他纯电动产品。

What does this industrial task look like? On the electric car vehicle, we're ramping up production of EQC. We have very healthy demand. If you look at xEVs in total, so a fully electrified smart portfolio, the EQC - the EQV that's being launched this year, we're presenting the EQA also to the market even though we're launching it next year, alongside with a range of other electric products.

我们将在纯电动汽车上实现非常陡峭的坡道。插电式混合动力车,我认为没有哪个制造商或高端制造商拥有比我们更全面的产品组合。对于某些车辆,我们也有一些独特的位置-其他车辆并不特别适合德国市场,例如一些从上到下的柴油混合动力车。就插电式混合动力车而言,我们正在大幅增加车辆的行驶里程。

We're going for a very steep ramp on fully electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrids, I don't think there is any manufacturer or premium manufacturer that has a more comprehensive portfolio than we have. We also have some unique positions for some of the vehicles that are - others don't have that fit particularly well to the German market, such as some of the diesel hybrids from top to bottom. We are significantly increasing ranges for our vehicles in terms of plug-in hybrids.

因此,为客户打造插电式混合动力车变得更加明智。对于我们的紧凑型汽车,使用WLTP约70公里。对于我们这里的新GLE,最长可达100公里。您现在可以从兴趣方面看到,尤其是来自企业和车队客户的兴趣,他们真的很热衷于此。

So the play for a plug-in hybrid for the customer becomes more sensible. For our compact cars, around 70 kilometers using WLTP. And for our new GLE that is over here, up to 100 kilometers. And you can see now in terms of interest, particularly from business and fleet customers, they're really keen on this.

在工业上是什么意思?在今年,我们希望将要在市场上交付的xEV数量增加四倍,并且将48伏轻度混合动力系统的数量增加一倍以上。所以这是一个非常非常陡峭的上升。

What does it mean industrially? In this year, we want to more than quadruple the number of xEVs that we're going to deliver in the market and more than double the number of 48-volt mild hybrid systems. So it's a very, very steep ramp up.

而且我们正在全球化。电气化将遍及我们在全球的所有工厂,其中之一就是在塔斯卡卢萨(Tuscaloosa)投资10亿美元以上。去年年底,我们刚刚在北京的运营中启动了首家大型电池厂。

And we're going global on this. The electrification will follow all our plants around the world, investing 1 billion plus in our operations in Tuscaloosa as one example. And we just started our first full-scale battery plant at our operations in Beijing at the end of last year.

除了将梅赛德斯变成可持续的现代豪华车的战略举措之外,在卡车和商用车方面,其目标也转向无二氧化碳排放。行业以及我们作为一家公司将在未来几年内采取的另一项重大战略举措是充分利用产品和公司的数字化。

Next to the strategic move of turning Mercedes into sustainable modern luxury and also on the truck and commercial vehicle side pivoting towards CO2-free mobility. The other major strategic move that the industry, and we as a company, will make in the years to come is the full utilization of digitization for the product as well as for the company.

对于产品,这将是我们对汽车的看法的根本变化。这不是机械包装,而是放置了从供应商那里购买的一堆ECU(包括软件包),然后进行集成。那就是我们来自的世界。这个世界将继续存在。它将变得更加开放。您将能够通过空中下载技术,下载到这些软件和电子体系结构中。

For the product, it will be a fundamental change of how we think about cars. It's not a mechanical package where you put a bunch of ECUs that you buy from suppliers, including software packages and then you integrate that. That's the world where we come from. That world will continue to exist. It will become more open. And you will be able to, over

the air, download into these software and electric electronic architectures.

但是,我们正在朝着根本转变的方向前进,即将软件体系结构与硬件体系结构分离开来,您可以在其中将软件体系结构放入所用的任何机械产品中。

But we're on a path to a fundamental shift where we are separating the software architecture from the hardware architecture, where you can put a software architecture into any one mechanical product that you put on the road.

这项工作始于梅赛德斯。实际上,几周前,在柏林的我们的软件公司,我们正在为这个新的操作系统编程,如果您愿意的话,实际上是开发了这种系统的外观的第一个粗略原型。这就是我们要走的路。这就是为什么当我们谈论节省人员成本时,我们没有拔出割草机,只是以相同的方式砍掉了每个部门。

That effort has started at Mercedes. In fact, a couple of weeks ago at our software company in Berlin, where we're programming this new operating system, if you will, actually drove the first rough prototype of what such a system could look like. This is the path that we're on. That's why when we talk about personnel cost savings, we have not pulled out the lawnmower and just mowed down every department in the same manner.

在软件领域,我们将不断壮大,并且将取得长足发展,因为我们相信这对汽车行业而言是极为重要的未来利润池。

In the area of software, we're going to grow, and we're going to grow significantly because we believe that this is a hugely important future profit pool for the auto industry.

当然,除此之外,我们几年前推出的MBUX受到了全球客户和产品媒体的广泛反馈。下一级已经在筹备中。请继续关注我们今年年底推出的S级轿车。您将看到最新,最出色的MBUX将其提升到一个新的水平,到2021年,我们将有更多的想法。因此,我对这个未来感到非常兴奋。

Next to that, of course, our MBUX that we launched a couple of years ago that have received tremendous feedback from customers and product press around the world. The next level is already in the pipeline. Stay tuned for the S-Class that we launched at the end of this year. You will see the latest and greatest MBUX taking that to the next level, and 2021, we have even more ideas coming. So I feel very excited about this future.

如果您想成功地进行战略举措,使公司朝着电气化方向发展,使公司朝着拥有强大机械传统的软件未来发展,则需要在文化上努力。

If you want to be successful making strategic moves, pivoting the company towards electrification, pivoting the company towards a software future on top of a strong mechanical heritage, you need to work on culture.

我们是3年前或4年前开始的,我们称之为“领导力2020”。现在是2020年。它的发展速度比我想象的要快得多。我们正朝着2020年迈进变革性的一步,将其称为20X,即下一个十年,该行业将发生根本变化的十年以及该公司将发生根本变化的十年。

We started 3 or 4 years ago with what we call Leadership 2020. Well, here we are. It's 2020. It came around a lot quicker than I thought. We're taking an evolutionary step of 2020 calling it 20X, the next decade, the decade this industry will change fundamentally and the decade this company will change fundamentally.

领导力2020的核心在很多方面都将通过赋权来发扬光大,试图将公司(即使是一家拥有30万员工的公司)转变为更具敏捷性的公司,并采用在产品项目和公司其他部门工作的新方式。

Many of the things, the core of Leadership 2020 will carry forward using empowerment, trying to turn the company, even if it's a 300,000 people company, into a more agile company, using new ways of working in product projects and other parts of the company.

但是它带有责任感。如果我们无法实现财务绩效并释放我们需要投资于未来的现金流量,那么美好的未来就不会那么美好。所以这是双重的。

But it comes with accountability. If we can't deliver on the financial performance and unlock the cash flows that we need to invest into the future, that bright future will not be as bright. So it is a dual play.

各个部门和不同领域的不同管理团队的财务绩效,问责制,以实现他们的目标并交付这些数字,同时,要想一想。在梅赛德斯,我们的目的是首先推动世界。考虑一下未来十年什么将改变世界,达到它并在2030年成功实现伟大目标。这就是我们领导力转变的全部内容。那是一场马拉松,而不是快速的冲刺,这是整个公司的心态问题。

Financial performance, accountability of the different management teams around the divisions and in the different areas to meet their targets and deliver these numbers, and at the same time, think big. At Mercedes, we say, as a purpose, first, move the world. Think about what is going to move the world in the next 10 years, and deliver that to be as successful in 2030 as we have been leading up to this point. That's what our leadership transformation is all about. And that's a marathon, not a quick sprint and something that needs to be a mindset issue for the whole company.

即使我们的计划还没有达到潘多拉(Pandora)2149 年的水平,但我们的梦想已经那么远了。我已经可以重申我一开始所说的话。在有时被视为冷酷,略带保留的北欧人格的背后,确实有发生这种情况的动机,我们将使用这种动机-作为管理团队,我们将使用该动机将这家伟大的公司置于其所属的位置。非常感谢你。

And even though our plans do not quite reach to the year 2149 [ph] on Pandora, our dream reaches that far. And I can already reiterate what I said at the beginning. Behind what is sometimes viewed as a cool, slightly reserved Nordic personality, there is a fire to make this happen, and we will use that fire - as a management team, we will use that fire to put this great company in the place it belongs. Thank you very much.

Q&A分析师提问环节

Q1: Patrick Hummel (UBS Analyst)

好的。谢谢。瑞银(UBS)的Patrick Hummel。因此,我将紧跟那一个复合物,也就是二氧化碳。我们已经听说过EQC与电池供应有关的潜在延迟。我只是想再次确认。那是2020年的50,000个单位吗?您仍然期望发生什么?还是您希望销售更多的插电式混合动力车?

Okay. Thanks. Patrick Hummel, UBS. So I'll stick to that one complex, which is CO2 then. We've heard about potential delays with the EQC related to battery supply. I just wanted to reconfirm. Is that 50,000 unit number for 2020? Still what you expect to happen? Or do you expect to sell more plug-in hybrids?

并且,您能否提醒我们,如果您在CMD上获得了关于CO2合规成本的EBIT桥梁,是将插电式混合成本转嫁给消费者(通过定价)还是假设承担了插电式混合动力车的全部损益?

And can you remind us if that EBIT bridge that you gave at the CMD about CO2 compliance costs, whether you factored in any pass-through of plug-in hybrid content costs to the customer, meaning through pricing or do you assume the full P&L hit for the plug-in hybrid?

作为最后一部分。一般而言,电池供应方面,我们已经看到一些OEM进入合资企业。例如,GM最近与LG化学合作。大众汽车公司直接持有股份,并与Northvolt成立了合资企业,电池销售的供应看起来并不像人们原先想象的一两年后那么稳定和可靠。

And as a final part. The battery supply in general, we've seen some OEMs entering joint ventures. For example, GM recently, with LG Chem. Volkswagen has a direct stake and a joint venture with Northvolt, and battery sale supply doesn't look quite as stable and reliable as maybe people had thought a year or two back.

那么,如果不以合资企业的形式直接将欧元投资于电池制造行业,是否可能是一个错误呢?还是为什么您认为退出该业务仍然是正确的决定?

So was it maybe a mistake not to invest euros directly into cell manufacturing in the form of joint ventures or whatever? Or why do you think it's still the right decision to stay out of this business?

Ola Källenius:

这是一个很长的问题。让我们从回答开始。我们在2019年资本市场日提出的基本计划是使我们能够在2020年实现目标的基础,尽管我们不能-当然可以确切地说出市场的表现。该基本假设是完整的。

That was a very long one question. Let's start with answering. The underlying plan that we presented in 2019 at the Capital Markets Day, which is the fundament for putting us in a position to be able to also reach the targets in 2020, although we cannot - would certainly say exactly how the market will behave. That underlying assumption is intact.

因此,我们正在执行该计划。我们尚未更改该计划,这反映出xEV从2%变为9%。它是混合动力电动汽车,当然还有插电式混合动力汽车,然后我们将48伏作为另一种措施。因此该计划仍然有效。我们并没有面临电池短缺,因而能够实现这一目标。

So we are on that plan. We have not changed that plan, and that reflects this going from a 2% to a 9% xEV. And it's a mix of battery-electric vehicles and, of course, plug-in hybrids, and then we have the 48-volt as also another measure. So that plan remains robust. We don't have an individual shortage of cells to be able to make that happen.

我必须对EQC进行简短评论。我们在2019年底,一位供应商举起了手,并说他们的一个次级供应商有一个组件超出规格。因此,在我们上线之前,我们当然要撤回生产量,并且必须在年底和今年年初进行改装。这使我们有些退缩。这本身与电池供应无关。

I have to make a short comment on EQC. We did, at the end of 2019 from a supplier on another component, have a supplier raised his hand and said one of their sub-suppliers had, had a component that are being produced out of spec. So before we launched, we, of course, pulled the produced volume back and had to refit those cars towards the end of the year and the beginning of this year. That held us back somewhat. That had nothing to do with cell supply in its own right.

我们的供应商为电池做准备。我们有五个电池供应商。他们已经确认了未来几年的供应。因为我们没有与他们建立合资企业,仅此而已,尽管我们不谈论单个供应商,但其中一个是我们为下一代电动汽车选择的最大供应商之一。从2021年开始,我们将在德国和美国建立专用的,最初专用的电池制造厂。显然,他们将利用这些资产来吸引其他客户。但是我们认为,这种采购策略是可靠的。

Our suppliers set for cells. We have five suppliers for cells. They have confirmed their supply for the next few years. Where as we don't have a joint venture with them, just to mention, one, even though we don't talk about individual suppliers, one of those, one of the biggest that we have picked for the next-generation electric cars to start in 2021, are building dedicated, initially dedicated cell manufacturing plants for us, both in Germany and in the United States. Obviously, they will leverage those assets down the road to capture other customers as well. But we feel that, that sourcing strategy is robust.

在这个时间点上,由于市场在技术发展方面如此活跃,因此如果要真正大规模地利用我们拥有的最稀缺的资本并可能投入数十亿美元,则需要十亿以上规模成本打造有竞争力的电池制造商,我们相信,资本可以更好地花费在汽车,软件架构,我们生产的电池系统等上。

At this point in time, as the market is so dynamic in terms of technical development, to take the scarcest capital that we have and put billions into potentially if you want to do it really at scale, 1 billion [ph] plus into a full-scale cost competitive cell manufacturer, we believe that, that capital is better spent on cars, software architecture of course, the battery systems that we do and so on.

因此,我想在这个阶段一直进行到垂直整合是几年前唯一一次自己完成这项工作的制造商。这是资本分配的问题,这就是我们的立场。

So to go all the way down into that vertical integration at this stage being, I guess, the only manufacturer that's actually once done it ourselves some years ago. It's a matter of capital allocation, and that's where we stand.

价格。当然,我们会尽可能地传递价格。因此,这并不是一个成功的选择。可以这样说,否则,数字将不会是我们现在的样子,我们无法承担全部成本。这是我们未来几年面临的阻力之一,导致我们在11月提出了这条道路。

Pricing. Of course, we pass on as much in pricing as we can. So it's not a full hit. But it's fair to say, otherwise, the numbers wouldn't have been the way they are, that we cannot pass on the whole cost. It is one of the headwinds that we have in the next couple of years that lead to this path that we presented in November.

Q2:Tim Rokossa(Deutsche Bank Analyst)

德意志银行的Tim Rokossa。奥拉(Ola),我认为您根本没有遇到过北欧酷派,我想您实际上遇到了很大的鼓舞,说了很坚定的话,说这是最低要求,然后您将继续。我认为这非常令人鼓舞,很高兴看到。许多投资者将对此表示赞赏。但是,为了判断在所有这些令人失望的季度之后这段旅程是否会成功,了解您如何到达现在的位置非常重要。

Tim Rokossa at Deutsche Bank. Ola, I didn't think that you came across Nordic cool at all, and I think you actually came across quite encouraging and with very strong word, saying that this is the floor, and then you're going to move on from here. I think that's very encouraging and good to see. A lot of investors will appreciate that. But in order to judge whether or not that journey will be successful after all these disappointing quarters now, it's very important to understand how you got to where you are right now.

您触及了一些构建基块。但是我必须说,要真正理解潜在的问题,我仍然有些挣扎。当我们只考虑三个主要项目时,我们在谈论梅赛德斯。您拥有市场上最高的售价。到目前为止,您的利润最低。

And you touched on some of the building blocks. But I must say, I still struggle a bit to really understand the underlying problems. When we just think about the three major items, we're talking Mercedes. You have the highest selling prices in the market. You have, by far, the lowest margin.

您是否对于销售假设过于乐观?是-您是否在过度使用客户不付费的产品来设计产品?或潜在的问题是什么?另外,当我们查看面包车时,调整了2%。由于内容相对较低且价格合理,因此至少在欧洲,其他所有人都可以在该细分市场上印刷钞票,但实际上在全球也是如此。为什么您不是10%而是2%?

Were you too bullish on your sales assumptions? Is - are you over engineering the product with things that your customers are not paying for? Or what is the underlying problem? Also, when we look at Vans, 2% adjusted. Everyone else prints money in this segment, at least in Europe, but actually also globally given the relatively low content and good pricing. Why are you not at 10% but only at 2%?

当我们考虑柴油时,为什么在Dieselgate成立将近4.5年之后,我们仍然每个季度都在谈论这个问题?您为什么不最终安顿下来,然后继续前进,并利用自己必须用于此的所有管理权最终确定并专注于未来并继续前进,而不是仅仅固定过去?谢谢。

And when we think about diesel, why almost 4.5 years after Dieselgate are we still talking about this every single quarter? Why are you not finally settling and then move on and take all that management power that you have to dedicate to this to be finally fixed and focus on the future and moving on rather than just fixing the past? Thank you.

Ola Källenius:

我将从后面开始。如果将其分析和抛弃在我们面前是一件非常简单,容易的事情,我们将不会花费4.5年的时间与有关部门进行讨论。因此,我认为这凸显了局势的复杂性。

I'm going to start from the back. If it would have been a very straightforward, easy thing to analyze and put behind us, we would not have spent 4.5 years discussing this with authorities. So I think that highlights the complexity of the situation.

这是我们的政策,也是明智的选择,为什么您仍在与当局进行诉讼以使信息非常稀缺,因为在那里开放并不支持该程序。

It has been our policy, and it is wise, why you're still in proceedings with authorities to be very scarce with the information because opening up there does not support that process.

正如我们去年提到的那样,我们专注于解决问题。这种关注从未像现在这样高。在这种情况下,作为一家公司,并不总是控制时间表。如您所知,在秋天,我们能够在德国搁置这些诉讼程序中的哪一项,这是达成最终结论的重要过程之一。

As we mentioned last year, we are focused on getting to resolution. That focus has never been higher than it is now. In these types of circumstances, as a company, you don't always control the time line. We were able to put one of these proceedings to bed in the fall, as you know, here in Germany, which one - which was one important piece of that journey to final conclusion.

并且,随着讨论的进行,我们必须根据您知道的非常详细的流程对我们认为的风险进行公正的评估,这是我们与审计师共同完成的事情。

And we must, as discussions progress, make a fair assessment of what we think the risk can be according to a process that you know is very clear in detail and it's something that we do with our auditors.

我希望我们可以做得更快吗?我当然是了。但是,我唯一可以说的是,我可以向您保证,我们正在设法尽快将其解决。我将其放在一边,因为这与您提出的问题几乎没有关系。

Do I wish that we could have done that quicker? Of course, I do. But the only thing I can say there, I can assure you that we're trying to get this to a good resolution as soon as we can. I'm going to put that to the side because that has very little to do with your question going forward.

坦率地说,我必须同意你的看法。如果您具有最高的销售额和最高的价格,那么您应该具有最高的盈利能力。我认为您不需要经济学博士学位来认识到成本问题。这就是我们要解决的问题,无论是在可变方面还是在固定成本方面。

To be frank, I have to agree with you. If you have the highest sales and the highest prices, you should have the highest profitability. I don't think you need a Ph.D. in Economics to understand that you don't have a cost problem. And that is what we are tackling, both on the variable side and on the fixed cost side.

我们必须调整大小(例如人员成本)的原因是固定成本诉讼太大。是的,也许我们对过去做出的一些决定对收入端会产生的收益过于乐观。而且,如果您没有完整的收入额度来支持这一点,那么您只能以解决费用来应对。这些是我们要采取的措施,包括可变的和固定的。

The reason why we have to resize, for instance, personnel cost, is the fixed cost suit is too big. Yes, maybe we were too optimistic on what the revenue side could yield as some decisions were made in the past. And if you don't have the full revenue line to support that, you can only respond with tackling costs. Those are the measures that we're putting in place, both variable and fixed.

当然,如果您生产大型,大型,大型豪华轿车,那么实现二氧化碳排放的道路可能会更长一些。但这就是-我不想以此为借口。正如我们在本计划中概述的那样,我们将逐步解决成本方面的问题,以开始克服一些不利因素。因此,这主要是我们要解决的成本问题。

And of course, if you make large, large, large-ish luxury cars, the road then to CO2 compliance is perhaps a little bit longer. But that's - I don't want to use that as an excuse. We are going to, as we have outlined in this plan, step by step tackle the cost side to start outweighing some of those headwinds. So it is primarily a cost issue that we're dealing with.

Tim Rokossa:

对于面包车也是同样的道理吗?

The same was true for Vans?

Ola Källenius:

是, 面包车略有不同,占1.9%,这是不可接受的。 我们今年将开始更改该数字。 10%,我认为我们从未遇到过。 这将是一个惊人的数字,但我们今年将开始更换货车。

Yes. Vans is little bit of a special story, 1.9% unacceptable. We're going to start changing that number this year. 10%, I don't think we've ever had that. That would be a phenomenal number, but we're going to start changing vans this year.

当然,其中一些实质性调整严重负担了2019年的结果,但即使3亿欧元也不能接受。 它是投资组合和成本的组合,但主要还是成本。 与乘用车类似,我们也将解决该问题。

And there was, of course, some of those material adjustments that burdened heavily the result in '19, but even the 300 million is not acceptable. And it's a combination of portfolio mix and costs, but primarily also costs. And similar to passenger cars, we're going to tackle that as well.

Q3:Angus Tweedie(Citigroup Analyst)

花旗集团(Citigroup)的安格斯(Angus)。 希望是第一个简单直接的问题。 您谈到了GLE在美国正在全速发展。当我们考虑库存时,您对当前的位置满意吗,尤其是在GLE库存方面? 当我们想到2020年自由现金流指南时,您能给我们提供任何有关我们在其中假设的营运资金收益的指南吗?

Angus from Citigroup. Hopefully, a straightforward, number one. You talked about the GLE is now going at a full speed in the U.S. When we think about the inventories, are you happy with where you are, particularly on GLE inventories? When we think of the 2020 free cash flow guidance, can you give us any guide on how much of a working capital benefit we've assumed in that?

Ola Källenius:

我可以开始。您来考虑应付款和应收账款。我来说。如您所知,当我们在2019年第二季度之后进行路演时,由于发布时遇到的问题,我们在去年年中库存过高。到2019年底,这已经达到平衡。

I can start. You do payables and receivables. I do the physical stuff. As you know, when we did the road show after Q2, because of the issues that we had in the launch, we were sitting on too high at the inventory middle of last year. That was brought in to balance by the end of 2019.

因此,现在我们可以称其为该操作中正常的库存水平。这并不意味着我们要停止。当然,我们正在查看范围,工厂和汽车中每一个的库存范围,以查看是否可以优化库存范围。

So now we are, let's call it, a normal healthy operational inventory level in that operation. That doesn't mean that we're going to stop. Of course, we're looking at the range, the stock range on every single one of our plants and cars to see if we can optima stock range.

当您启动一个新工厂时,由于墨西哥工厂的补给,这就像墨西哥的工厂一样很远,因此,您的库存增加了。现在,我们正在研究从2019年底到2020年,尽管我们有雄心壮志要增长,但我们如何才能抑制库存增长,然后开始朝着我们正在寻找的另一个方向发展。

When you launch a new plant, which is very far away like the one in Mexico, automatically due to supplies to that plant and so on, you take like a step-up on inventory. Now we're looking at, from the end of 2019 to 2020, in spite of our ambition to wanting to grow, how can we dampen that and then start moving in the other direction that we're looking at.

如果您看到2019年的数字,那么21亿的营运资本增加主要是应收账款和应付账款发行,与其说是存货发行,不如说是因为我们在2019年底之前基本上就把它改了。If you see the numbers for 2019, the 2.1 billion up on working capital, that was mainly receivables and payables issue, not so much an inventory issue because we largely put that right by the end of 2019.

Martin Daum:

在我们进行工作时,我们会分摊营运资金,实物和财务。不,我认为其余的不只是财务上的。是的,很明显,如果从数字上看,如果您查看到2019年底的生产水平的销售情况,则健康的销售生产已经趋于稳定。

As we do the work share on the working capital, physical and financial. No, I think the remainder is not just financial. Yes, clearly, and you can see in the numbers, if you look at the sales on the production level by the end of 2019, a healthy sales production has been leveled out.

实际上,我们在应付款项方面有很短的付款条件,这意味着应付款项在2019年底暴跌,我的意思是应收账款增加了,这主要是在21亿欧元的负担中。下周资产负债表显示出来后,您将在那清楚地看到它。

We have actually pretty short payment terms on the payable side, which means the payable plummet at the end of 2019, and receivables I mean, went up, I mean, that's chiefly in the burden of the 2.1 billion. Once the balance sheet is out next week, you will see it clearly over there.

我们是否想做得更好?是的,我们想要。但是,让我澄清一件事。当我们将面包车的MBC现金转换目标定为0.7到0.9,卡车和客车的现金转换目标定为0.8到1时,我们将其视为潜在的现金转换。我们不期望有更多的一次性收益,从营运资本中获得一次性收益。

Do we want to do better than that? Yes, we want. But let me clarify one thing. When we give the cash conversion target of 0.7 to 0.9 for MBC in Vans and 0.8 to 1 for Trucks and Buses, we see that as an underlying cash conversion moving forward. We do not expect in that any, call it, more onetime benefit, which we could harvest from working capital.

而且,通过更加强调资本分配和投资上限,并从营运资本中获得更自然的平衡,来区分我们想要实现的潜在现金转换率非常重要。

And it's extremely important to differentiate the underlying cash conversion rate we want to achieve by putting more emphasis on capital allocation and on the investment cap and have a more natural balancing out of the working capital.

最重要的是,是的,我们确实有潜力改善我们的净流动资金状况,同时考虑到我之前提到的一些剩余现金套现风险。这就是我们的策略。

On top of that, yes, we do believe there is a potential to improve our net liquidity situation, also in perspective of some remaining risk of cash-outs, which I referred to before. So that's our strategy.

Q4:Jose Asumendi(JPMorgan Analyst)

谢谢您。我是摩根大通的Jose Asumendi。 请问马丁先生关于卡车业务的问题。马丁,您能谈谈在欧洲和北美的库存水平吗? 此外,您多大程度上调整了欧洲和北美的员工人数以反映我们当前在两个地区的现有账单比率?谢谢。

Thank you. It's Jose [Asumendi] from JPMorgan. Just a question on Trucks, please for Martin. Martin, can you talk about your inventory levels in Europe and North America? And also, how far have you adjusted the workforce in Europe and North America in order to reflect the current book-to-bill ratios that we have across both regions? Thank you.

Martin Daum:

当您查看库存时,可以三倍查看。首先,这是我们的新卡车。我们在北美的纪录低点。我们很早就调整了生产。在欧洲,我们的水平非常低。这样很好。

When you look at inventories, you can look at that, threefold. First of all, it's the new trucks that are in our position. We had record lows in North America. We adjusted our production very early to it. We have very, very low levels in Europe. So that's fine.

第二层是库存水平,即您在市场上看到的水平,尤其是在北美,在经销商和车身制造商的手中。因此,我们在第四季度初就开始刹车。这样库存水平就大大降低了,因此完全不用担心。

The second level is the inventory level, what you see in the marketplace, especially in North America in the hands of the dealers and the bodybuilders. Therefore, we pushed the brakes fairly early in the fourth quarter. So that inventory level went significantly down, and there is nothing to worry at all about that.

对于第四季度的零售销量来说,我们看不到零售数量的下降,但是您可以看到批发数量的下降,在这样的零售水平下,我们交付的卡车比正常情况下少了大约8,000、9,000辆。因此,这可以减少经销商的库存。所以这也很好。

For the retail sales in the fourth quarter were - we couldn't see a downturn in the retail numbers, but you see it significantly in the wholesale numbers, where we delivered about 8,000, 9,000 trucks less than normally we deliver at such retail level. So that's a deduction in the inventories of our dealers. So that's very fine as well.

最后一个问题是我们拥有的二手卡车。我会说欧洲处于较高点。因此,我们必须在2020年将重点放在降低这一水平上。正如您在调整该水平所需的其他费用中所看到的那样,它具有巨大的负担,但我有信心在2020年,我们也能做到这一点。

And then there is a last issue that's used trucks in our own possession. And I would say Europe is rather on the higher end. So we have to put emphasis in 2020 on that to get it lower. Has a significant - had some burdens, as you've seen in our other additional cost charges to adjust for that level, but I'm confident that in 2020, we get that in order as well.

Q5:Horst Schneider(BAML Analyst)

您好,我是美银美林的Horst Schneider。我对2020年指南再次提出了疑问,尤其是当我将其与您的CMD幻灯片进行比较时。 我认为,在CMD上您指导了2020年销量增长3%的目标,现在您的目标销量略低。 因此,现在在数量结构和价格上应该存在差距,您需要在其他地方进行补偿, 那么您打算在2020年做什么来弥补短缺?

Yeah. Hello, it's Horst Schneider, Bank of America. I have got a question again on the 2020 guidance, especially when I compare that with your CMD slides. I think in the - at the CMD, you guided for something like 3% volume growth for 2020. Now you have got slightly lower unit sales that you are targeting. So there should be a gap now on volume structure and pricings that you need to compensate elsewhere. So what do you aim to do in 2020 to compensate the shortfall?

尤其是当我展望2020年至2022年期间时,我认为很大一部分销售额约占总销售额的2%,来自销量结构净定价。您不担心那可能太雄心勃勃吗? 那是您指南中最雄心勃勃的部分吗?

And especially, when I look to the 2020, 2022 period, a large portion, I think, it was something like 2% of sales, was coming from volume structure net pricing. Don't you get nervous that, that might be too ambitious? Is that the most ambitious part in your guidance?

如果出于任何原因继续缺货,您打算做什么,这可能只是与行业有关,而不是您自己的错误。 但是,您打算采取什么措施来弥补这一不足呢?

And what do you aim to do if you continue to fall short of volumes for which reasons ever, it might be just industry-related and not your own mistake. But what you aim to do to compensate shortfalls in that bracket?

最后,对不起,现金流量。 这是否意味着您现在的指导意见是现金转换率(包括营运资本指标)将高于您现在为2020年指导的水平。因此,今年的现金流还有更多的上升空间?

And the last one, sorry, on cash flow. Does it mean your guidance now that the cash conversion ratio, including working capital measures, which will be higher than that what you guide now for 2020. So that there's much more upside on cash flow already this year?

Ola Källenius:

也许我将从销售开始。当然,销售和收入是两件事。这就是销售。我们将在2020年重新设置Smart品牌商业模式。因此,燃油Smart变得不那么重要了,它本身在财务上并没有那么重要,但是就其本身而言,可以使您的绝对销售数字下降。

Maybe I'll start with sales. And of course, sales and revenues are two things. So this is the sales. We have a reset of the smart business model in 2020. So the combustion smarts, they fall away, that in its own right, financially, not as significant, but that in its own right, takes your sales numbers in absolute numbers down.

我想说,我们已经对冠状病毒的效果做出了非常谨慎的初步估计,尽管现在就对这种情况进行最终评估还为时过早。同时,我们已经拥有了,而且我认为我们展示了相当强大的定价能力。当然,在诸如随着停车场增长的售后等领域以及在创收方面也有所增长。我在看MBUX的GLE,在事实发生后,我们还通过销售一些数字内容产生了收益。

We have made a first, I would say, very cautious estimate of effects from the coronavirus, although it's far too early to make a final assessment of what that is going to look like. At the same time, we have had, and I think we showed a pretty strong pricing power. Of course, growth in areas such as after sales with a growing carpark and also in terms of generating revenues. I'm looking here at the GLE with MBUX, where we also generate revenues for selling some of the digital content after the fact and so on.

随着我们试图传达在成本方面采取的行动势头正在增强。因此,正如Harald(戴姆勒CFO)所说,如果将所有这些因素加在一起,我们认为2020年将超过4%。

And as we have tried to bring across the actions that we've taken on the cost side are gaining momentum. So we, as Harald said, we stand by the greater than 4% for 2020, if you sum all of those things together.

Harald Wilhelm:

好吧,也许现金流很快。 但正如我们所说,就CMD而言,我指的豪华车领域的销售。 基本上,我们今天所说的略有增加,包括Smart品牌。我提到了GLE,GLS和GLD,我们预计2020年品牌核心将同比增长。我希望这能解释CMD和Now。

Well, maybe quickly on the cash flow. But just on the CMD, as we said, I mean, sales in the luxury segment. And basically, what we said today, a slight increase, including smart. If you take MB without smart, thanks to the strong product availability. I mentioned GLE, GLS or GLD, we expect year-on-year up on the core of the brand for 2020. I hope that explains between CMD and Now…

Unidentified Analyst:未知分析师

抱歉,那是包含中国地区的对吗?

Sorry, and that's including China, right?

Harald Wilhelm:

是的,包含中国。

That's including China.

Harald Wilhelm:

在现金流方面和我们给出的指导上,无论是按部门划分的现金转化率还是集团层面的自由现金流,我们都包括改善营运资金,但在2020年不会产生重大的一次性影响。

And on the cash flow side and the guidance which we gave, be it on the CCR by division, as well as on the FCF at the group level, we include improvement on working capital, but no material onetime impact in 2020.

正如我之前概述的那样,这仍然是我们的目标。 但是,这仍然是我们解锁这些的策略。但它们不是我们今天发布指南的一部分。

As I outlined before, that remains our objective. That remains our strategy, however, to unlock these. However, they are not part of the guidance, which we issued today.

Q6:Gautam Narayan(RBC Analyst)

我是加拿大皇家银行的分析师Gautam Narayan。感谢您接受我的提问。关于卡车业务的问题。上周,您的一位同行试图以一些人可能认为很高的估值来巩固其北美卡车业务。你们的卡车业务在北美显然很强大。我觉得在某些情况下,它可能像一个无名英雄。

Gautam Narayan, RBC. Thanks for taking my question. Question on Trucks. One of your peers last week tried to consolidate its North American truck business at a pretty high valuations some may consider. And your guys truck business is, obviously, really strong in North America. I feel like it's - in some cases, it may be like an unsung hero.

有人可能会说,如果我将上个季度或上周尝试收购的估值倍数作为您的零件总和,那意味着卡车在您的股权价值中所占比例相当大。

If I put that valuation multiple that attempted acquisition last quarter or last week on your sum of the parts, it would mean that trucks is a pretty big percentage of your equity value, some may say.

问题是,您如何从战略角度看待卡车业务与汽车业务?我知道它在过去一个季度贡献了可观的现金流量。两者之间是否存在更具战略性的协同作用,也许与未来的电池技术是自主的?您如何从战略角度看待这两家公司?

The question is, how do you view the truck business with the car business strategically? I know it contributed a sizable amount of cash flow this past quarter. Is there a more strategic synergy between the two, perhaps with battery technology in the future, autonomous? How do you view these two businesses strategically together?

Ola Källenius:

我的意思是,您自己回答了问题。 首先,我们非常清楚我们拥有北美业务,而不必购买它。 因此,这种情况下的时机确实可以从10、20、30年前开始。

I mean, you answered your question yourself. First of all, we are very clear that we have the North American business and don't have to buy it. So the timing in this case was really good to start in couple of 10, 20, 30 years ago.

其次,两者之间存在巨大的协同作用。是的,我们在与转换相关的所有事情上都非常紧密地合作。我们在电池方面进行合作,在燃料电池方面进行合作。在那里,我们看到卡车比乘用车方面更好的用例。是的,我们与乘用车在自动驾驶方面进行合作。

Secondly, there are huge synergies or big synergies between the two. Yes, we collaborate very closely when it comes in all transformation-related things. We collaborate on the battery side. We collaborate on the fuel cells. There, we see Truck even more a better use case than in the passenger car side. And yes, we collaborate on the autonomous piece with passenger car.

然后,我们在人与人之间进行了非常良好而强大的交流。在管理方面,人员方面以及人才方面,我们可以在篱笆的两边培养真正的优秀企业家人才。确实如此,两者之间有很多协同作用。

And then we have a very good and strong exchange on the human - on the management side and the people side and the talent side where we can groom really good entrepreneurial talents in both sides of the fence. So it's really - there is a lot of synergies between the two.

Q7:Henning (HSBC Analyst)

谢谢。 我是汇丰银行的分析师Henning。 我希望不要在一个是或否答案上浪费我的一个问题。 但是我想有人问过你关于股息的问题。因此,也许您需要再澄清一次,您希望坚持40%的支付比率,并将自由现金流视为最高限额,并且您将不会针对政府和法律现金支出进行调整,也不会重组现金支出。显然,我们正在考虑数十亿美元,而您必须在未来几年内付款。

Thank you. It's Henning from HSBC. I hope I'm not wasting my one question on a yes or no answer. But I think somebody asked you about dividends. So just to maybe clarify one more time that you want to stick with the 40% payout ratio and see the free cash flow as a ceiling and that you won't be adjusting for governmental and legal cash-out and also restructuring cash-out and obviously, we're looking at several billion now that you have to pay out over the next few years.

我完全理解很难量化幅度和时机,但也许只是例外,这可能意味着在此类现金支出之后,没有自由现金流,具体取决于现金用途,这可能会限制股息归零。这是一个合理的澄清吗?

And I perfectly appreciate it's difficult to quantify both the magnitude and timing, but maybe just exceptionally, that could mean that there's no free cash flow after such cash-outs, depending on where they're for, and that would restrict the dividend possibly to zero. Is that a fair clarification?

也许只是,尽管我可以对于重组业务上,相信您说过您预计将在20还是200亿中整体筹集20亿欧元,其中2020年为12亿欧元。还要澄清一下吗?

And maybe just, while I can on the restructuring itself, I believe you said you're anticipating 2 billion in '20 or 2 billion overall, of which 1.2 in 2020. Just to clarify that as well?

Ola Källenius:

因此,让我们快速讨论一下。 我说,总共200亿中筹集20亿欧元,2020年的EBIT总计为12亿欧元。是的,现金在2021年及以后会出现更多。

So let's talk of this one quickly. One, overall, 2 billion, I said, 1.2 in EBIT in 2020. Yes, cash will show more in '21 and beyond. So a smoother profile on…

Henning :所以是20亿中的12亿欧元EBIT对吗?

So 1.2 out of 2 in the EBIT in 2020, right?

Ola Källenius:

那是我在2020年说的。那么,关于分红,我们应该怎么想呢?我的意思是,我认为40%的支出比率是一个不错的基准。这就是为什么即使在这个趋势关头,我们仍会感到坚定并坚持并坚持这一点的原因。显然,在什么水平上存在一个问号。我的意思是,现金支出及其他水平。

In 2020. That's what I said. So again, on the dividend, how should we think? I mean, 40% payout ratio, I think, is a good benchmark. And that's why we feel committed and adhere and stick to that, even at this trend juncture. Obviously, there is a question mark in terms of what is the level of - I mean, cash outs and beyond that.

我只能以合理的确定性水平指导您我真正可以预测和预测的内容。希望您对此表示赞赏。那么,我们在指南之外做什么呢?我之前概述过。基于我们今天所做的披露,我们将尝试从资产负债表中释放出公司尽可能多的现金潜力,以减轻仍然不存在的任何风险。这就是我们坚定的承诺。又为什么呢?我们想要确保的同时也意味着股息的不断发展,同时也保护了100亿的净资产。

I can only guide you on what I really can predict and forecast with a reasonable level of certainty. I hope you appreciate that. So what are we doing beyond what we guide? I outlined it before. We will try to free up as much cash potential from the company, from the balance sheet in order to mitigate any risk which is still inexistent based on the disclosure we did today. That's what we're firmly committed to. And why? As we want to secure also mean the dividends moving forward, and at the same time, protect the NIL of 10 billion.

只是在不做出承诺的情况下寻求第二次股息。但是与此同时,我们今天说,EBIT报告将大大超过2020年,超过2019年,对吗?从今天的角度来看,这就是一切,我的意思是,EBIT报告,上升应该转化为净利润,EPS上升。是。很明显,我的意思是,这也是我们的目标,在未来,在更高的水平上获得更高的股息,这与利润的增长保持一致。

Just looking for a second into dividend without making commitments or promises here. But at the same time, we said today, EBIT reported will be significantly above in 2020, beyond 2019, right? So it was everything, we know from today's standpoint, I mean, EBIT reported, I mean, up should translate into net profit, EPS up. Yes. So clearly, I mean, it is our objective, I mean, also to have mean dividends at a higher level, again, in the future, I mean, consistent with the rising in profits.

Q8:Philippe Houchois(Jefferies Analyst)

是的,我是来自Jefferies的分析师Philippe Houchois。我的问题跟亨宁(前一位分析师)的有关。但是首先,祝贺您减少了股息。我认为这是一年前应该做的事。因此,这对于保护资产负债表很重要。

Yeah. Philippe Houchois at Jefferies. And my question kind of follows up on Henning's. But first of all, congratulations for cutting your dividend. I think that was overdue for being done a year ago. So that's important to protect the balance sheet.

我想了解的是,即使您产生了您正在谈论的那种现金流,您在资产负债表上仍然有很多索偿要求。我的第一个问题是了解,您是否考虑过像大众汽车那样的永久混合动力车来缓冲您的股票资产,保护您的评级?我知道这会花费您一些钱,但与此同时,它会像资产负债表一样坚挺,并且在提出索赔之前。

What I'm trying to understand is, you still have a lot of claims on your balance sheet even if you generate the kind of cash flow you're talking about. My first question is kind of understanding, have you considered doing something like a perpetual hybrid like Volkswagen did to kind of buffer your equity based, protect your rating? I know it costs you a bit of money, but at the same time, it would kind of stick as a balance sheet and – ahead of the claims coming.

当我以其他方式查看您的现金转换并将其链接到资产负债表时,您的资本支出和折旧之间会有30亿美元的缺口。因此,这是一笔非常庞大的资金,会损害您的现金转换或目标。在美国,福特和通用汽车的一些同行都在谈论尝试匹配资本支出和折旧。我只是想知道,如果您要达到固定的投资水平,那么您要花多长时间才能达到目标。

And when I look at your cash conversion otherwise and kind of link it to your balance sheet is you have a 3 billion gap between CapEx and depreciation. So that's a very chunky amount of money to hurt your cash conversion or your target. Some of your peers in the U.S., Ford and GM, are kind of talking about trying to match CapEx and depreciation. And I'm just wondering how long might it take for you to get to that point, given that you are getting to a flat level of investment.

如果我能紧缩最后一个条件,那就是您的业绩,您多年来为该业务带来的市值,假设您每年都进行资产减值测试。我很惊讶您没有做任何事情来记下资产基础。我要超越自己吗?您能告诉我们您的收入,现金流量和资产负债表金额之间的不匹配情况吗?

And if I can squeeze the last one would be given your performance, your market cap you bring to this business over the years, I assume you do an asset impairment test every year. And I'm surprised you haven't done something to write down your asset base. Am I getting ahead of myself? Is that coming, what's your - what can you tell us about the mismatching between your earnings, cash flow and the amount of the value of your balance sheet?

Ola Källenius:

好吧,让我先回答最后一部分的问题。显然,作为每项披露的一部分,我们都在进行减值测试 我们的审计师会仔细考虑。因此,我没有理由进行任何减值测试。今天这是未经审计的数字,但我认为我们有信心坐在这里,我的意思是,下周要发布的最终决算将是今天的样子,至少在我今天和财务团队在一起的地方。

Well, let me take the last one right away. Obviously, we're doing impairment testing as part of each and every disclosure. Our auditors look at that carefully. So I have no reason for any impairment test. This is unaudited numbers today, but I think we sit here with confidence that, I mean, the final accounts, which will be published next week will be what they are today, at least that's where I am today where with the finance team.

第二点,就任何工具或混合动力而言。不,我确实相信,我的意思是,该公司的现金潜力确实存在。就像我们展示的那样,带我进入现金流量表。想象一下我们能够平衡营运资金。想象一下,我们能够缩小投资与折旧水平之间的差距。

Second point, in terms of any instruments or hybrids. No, I do believe that - I mean, the cash potential, I mean, of the company does exist. Just take me in the cash flow statement as we showed it. I mean, imagine for a second we are able to balance the working capital. Imagine we are able to close the gap between investments and the depreciation level.

只需拿我们向您显示的2019年现金流量表即可。我认为这开始显示出潜力,那就是我们想要抓住的地方。我认为这也是我们面临的现金兑现剩余风险方面的工作。

Just take the 2019 cash flow chart we showed to you, the NIL charge. I think it starts to illustrate, I mean, potential. That's where we want to grab. And I think that's what we have to do also with regard to the remaining risk on cash-outs we are facing.

关于现金造血能力,您提到的现金转化率是一个基准。为什么我们要说汽车和面包车在2020年应该达到0.7到0.9?我们设定最高值。我的意思是,我们需要休息一下。除此之外,我们可能会朝另一个方向发展。所以我们停止了。我们把它弄平了。同时,这有点技术性。折旧即将来临。

And on the cash generation, the CCR, I mean, the reference, a benchmark, you mentioned. Why do we say Cars and Vans should have a 0.7 to 0.9 in 2020? We put the cap. I mean, we put the break. Beyond that, probably we'll go the other direction. So we stopped it. We flattened it. And at the same time, that's a bit more technical. Depreciation is coming up.

显然,投资与折旧之间超过30亿美元的实质性差距将缩小。因此,我们应该使流动资金的经常性比率更加平衡,而使我们的投资和折旧也更加平衡。然后基本上,我们将来自运营的现金显示在自由现金流的底线。

So clearly, that material gap of more than 3 billion between investment and depreciation will close down. So we should have on a recurring rate of working capital, which is more balanced, and we should have investments and depreciation, which is more balanced. And then basically, the cash from operations we revealed into the bottom line on the free cash flow.

Q9:George Galliers(Goldman Sachs Analyst)

感谢您接受我的提问。 我是来自高盛的分析师George Galliers。刚开始时,帕特里克(Patrick)有关二氧化碳的问题就绕了一圈。Ola,您强调指出,您在2020年和2021年面临风险。大概在有风险的地方,您有一个计划B。能否帮助我们更好地了解您的计划B,它是否正在从市场上撤出某些产品? 更努力地推动电动汽车? 您是否有关于冷却的讨论? 还是只是支付罚款?

Thank you for taking my questions. It's George Galliers from Goldman Sachs. Just coming full circle to Patrick's questions at the beginning about CO2. Ola, you highlighted that you saw risk in 2020 and 2021. Presumably, where there's risk, you have a plan B. Could you help us better understand what your plan B is, whether it's withdrawing certain products from the market? Pushing the EVs harder? Have you had discussions around cooling? Or is it just paying the fines?

而且,如果它不支付罚款,那么您将在什么时间查看是否需要实施计划B?会在六个月内吗? 9个月或更晚的一年?

And if it's not paying the fines, at what point in time will you have a view on whether you're going to need to implement plan B or not? Will it be at a 6-month period? 9-month period or even later in the year?

Ola Källenius:

当然,随着我们看到销售量的增长,我们每月都会对此进行观察。但是我们会做出经济上合理的决定。因此,我们不会做一些我们认为证明一定水平的合规性上不那么经济的事情。

We watch, of course, this on a monthly basis as we see our sales develop. But we would make economically rational decisions. So we will not do something that we feel would be less economical to demonstrate a certain number or a certain level of compliance.

目前,我们的计划是增加xEV。我们有健康的需求。因此,老实说,我认为这更是一个运营问题,而不仅仅是销售问题。 这就是为什么这些不同技术的工业化在接下来的两年中如此重要的原因。但是,我们不会人为地限制不在该合规范围内的高端汽车的销售。

At the moment, our plan is to ramp up our xEVs. We have healthy demand. So I think it's more of an operational issue than it is a sales issue to be totally honest. And that is why the industrialization of these different technologies is so important in the next 2 years. But we would not artificially cap, let's say, sales of high-end vehicles that are not in that compliance range.

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报告发布时间:2019年2月16日

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