中国金茂(0817.HK)：Buy，TP HK$7.30

机构：国金证券

评级：买入

目标价：7.3港元

Top Pick: Primary land projects a key source of landbank — Jinmao signed six primary land project agreements in 1H18. We estimate its total 12 primary land projects will supply c.50mqm developable area – the size of Jinmao’s existing landbank. Management earlier had indicated that primary land development could account for 60% of its new landbank acquisitions in future. Jinmao’s unique landbanking model through primary land could sustain future sales growth as well as maintaining reasonable margins. We believe the company’s unique landbanking advantage and visible sales/earnings growth have not been factored in by its current undemanding valuations (4.5x 19E PE, 66% NAV disc and 7.6% yield). We reiterate Buy on Jinmao, which remains one of our top picks in the sector.

Expect record-high sales in 4Q, supported by primary land sales and faster project launches — Jinmao achieved Rmb3bn primary land sales last week in Changsha. It has c.Rmb90bn saleable resources for launch in Sep-Dec ’18. Based on the sell-through rate achieved in 1H18, we estimate Jinmao to register recordhigh sales in 4Q18E, which could help it surpass its raised Rmb120bn sales target. 

2019E revenue already locked in — Jinmao has Rmb116bn unbooked revenue (including contracted sales in Jul/Aug). Our 2H18E/19E property revenues are already fully locked in, and we forecast a 33% earnings CAGR in 2017-20E. We expect Jinmao to sustain a stable property development gross margin of 31% in 2018-20E, on average, which would help it realize earnings from high sales growth.

Jinmao’s 4.5x PE looks attractive and below peers’ valuations — Jinmao is currently trading at 4.5x ‘19E PE and 66% NAV disc, which is below its peers’ average of 5.3x ‘19E PE/48% NAV discount. Furthermore, Jinmao’s SOE mixed- ownership reform and management’s shareholding should continue to serve as a vote of confidence for the stock. With this note, we transfer coverage of Jinmao to Summer Xia from Griffin Chan.