腾讯控股(00700.HK):20180711G is a Sweet Burden,Overweight,Price Target HK$498.00

2018-07-12 15:24 港股研报君 阅读 1324

机构:摩根士丹利

评级:买入

目标价:498港元

Lighter 2Q18 sales to mark the trough of sales growth YoY in 2018: We trim 2Q sales forecasts by 4% to reach Rmb74.0bn (+1% QoQ, +31% YoY) in 2Q, mainly due to: 1) delayed monetization of PUBG games amid pending government approval; 2) FIFA World Cup distraction on video business as well as milder monetization ramp up of the news feed advertising; 3) high base in the 'others' business line and new rules from PBOC calling for gradual reserve funds ratio hike to third-party payment service providers, which could potentially drag down interest income. We keep the non-GAAP OPM forecast at 32% vs. 34% in 1Q18 due to lower game contribution.

Bittersweet PUBG launch may take more time to bear fruit: We expect mobile game line to bottom out with +20% YoY and -18% QoQ in 2Q18; PC games continue to fluctuate with -10% YoY and -13% QoQ, followed by a 3% gross margin QoQ decline to 60% in 2Q. Over the quarter, both PUBG for PC and Mobile have not commenced monetization due to pending government approvals, but the revenue potential is substantial with user engagement level of PUBG: Battlefield remaining impressive and further improved to 150+mn MAU and 40+mn DAU in June vs. 120+mn MAU and 30+mn DAU in May, according to QuestMobile. On the flip side, the popularity of PUBG is cannibalizing gamer time and mind share of other games that allow monetization. However, we note Tencent has been working on mitigating the PUBG uncertainties, and is expected to launch the survival shooting game alternative, Fortnite PC, which has achieved bigger success than PUBG globally, on the WeGame platform in China in late July.

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