20150623-GOLDMAN_SACHS-华润创业(0291):STRONG_ASP_AND_SWEETENED_OFFER_FROM_CRH_DRIVES_RE-RATING;BUY-953363

$华润创业(hk00291)$
We attended CRE’s analyst briefing post 1Q15 results and the revised offer for its non-beer assets.Key takeaways:1)CR Snow saw strong ASP growth in April similar to 1Q15(5% YoY)and positive YoY volume growth.FY2015 beer sales growth was guided at 5-10% with two-thirds coming from ASP and one-third from volume growth;2)CR Snow expects steady margin for FY15 despite strong ASP given slightly higher packaging cost for premium products as well as higher SG&A–we forecast 50bps EBITDA margin improvement to 13.1% in 2015E;3)Kingway plants are still loss-making but CR Snow has begun utilising its spare capacity to produce Snow brand and share Kingway’s distribution network in South China.We raise CR Snow’s NPAT by 1-3% for 2015-17E on higher ASP and better margin.
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*声明:文章为作者独立观点,不代表格隆汇立场

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