看不懂美国债务水平?无法理解为什么要废除多德弗兰克法案?巴菲特教你!

2016-12-06 17:51 谷闷恒 阅读 10332

2016年11月18日,巴菲特先生跟来自波士顿大学、哥伦比亚大学、肯考迪亚大学(蒙特利尔)、格林内而大学、马凯特大学、圣路易斯大学、耶鲁大学、以及马丽兰大学的20名工商管理学硕士、理学硕士以及学士进行了面对面交流。

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巴菲特先生在两个半小时的时间内,跟各高校学生共探讨了15个问题。本篇为在场学生速记,材料珍贵,由于是现场速记材料,故语言组织不尽完善,但其中探讨的问题对投资都十分有启发性,个个经典。

特此,格隆汇组织翻译力量,呈上中英对照版本。 

Question 1: What qualities do you look for in hiring people?

问题1:您在招聘的时候看重什么品质?

WB: Berkshire hasonly 25 people at headquarters, but 360,000 employees.  The managers ofBerkshire’s 70 businesses choose their own people.  The qualities theylook for are intelligence, energy, and integrity.  But the most importantquality in a manager is having a passion for the business.  It is not IQbut passion for their businesses that make Berkshire’s 70 managers standout.  When WB was 23 years old, he was rejected by Ben Graham for a job.Years later he received a letter saying the “next time you come to NY stop bymy office”.  WB went the next day.  He never asked about pay. You should take a job that you would take if you didn’t need a job.

巴菲特:伯克希尔总部只有25个员工,但是旗下有36万员工。伯克希尔70个子业务的管理层自行负责人员招聘,他们寻找的是有智慧、有活力、且正直的人。就管理者而言,他们身上最重要的品质是对公司满怀热忱。伯克希尔70个子业务的管理者能够脱颖而出正是因为他们对公司十分热忱,并不是因为他们IQ很高。巴菲特23岁的时候申请为本·格雷厄姆工作,被拒绝了。几年之后,他收到了一封信:“下次来纽约到我办公室来坐坐”。巴菲特第二天就去了,毫不关心薪酬的事情。在非得必须工作的情况下,如果你还想要这份工作,这就是你应该选择的。

Question 2: What is the percentage of S&P 500 companies that are getting better?

问题2:标普500里面哪些公司的竞争力在提升?

WB:  WB hasbeen on the board of directors of 19 public companies.  3G Capital hasadded discipline to Kraft Heinz and Anheuser Busch InBev.  Jeff Bezos isthe best business person he has ever seen.  The quality of management hasimproved and they are paid better.  The CEO’s main responsibility iscapital allocation.  Director fees are now about $300,000 – $400,000 peryear and directors generally do little.  Berkshire’s directors buy stockin Berkshire with cash (rather than stock options used by most companies).

巴菲特:巴菲特目前是19家公司的董事会成员。3G资本已经加强了对卡夫亨氏和百威英博的管理。巴菲特认为杰夫·贝索斯(亚马逊CEO)是他认识的最优秀的企业家。CEO最主要的职责是负责资本分配。董事会成员的报酬目前在每年30万~40万美金的范围,他们的工作量总体来说很小。伯克希尔的股东用现金购买伯克希尔的股票(并非像大多数公司那样用股票期权购买)。

Question3:  Are you concerned by the size of the national debt?

问题3:您现在会为国债的量过大而感到担忧吗?

WB:  Thegross debt of the U.S. is 100% of GDP, but the net debt (subtracting trustfunds) is less, at 70%+ of GDP.  Our net debt was as high as 120% of GDPin World War II and as low as 35% -38% in the Reagan years.  As long asour debt is in dollars, it cannot cause us any problems. (We can always printmore dollars.)  Taxes have accounted for 16% – 20% of GDP over time. Medical costs today represent 17% of GDP, up from 5% in 1970.  The nexthighest country spends only 11% of GDP on health care.  Corporate taxesequal 2% of GDP down from 4% in the past.

巴菲特:美国目前的总债务占GDP的100%,但是净债务(除去信托基金)少一点,占GDP的70+%。跟第二次世界大战那个时候比,我们的净债务的确太高了,相当于那时候GDP的120%,但是跟里根时期相比,我们现在的净债务也就是那时候35%~38%的水平吧。只要我们的负债都以美元记,就不会有什么问题(我们还可以印多的美元)。税收占了GDP的16%~20%。医疗费用花了GDP的17%,1970年时是5%。医疗费用第二高的国家,其医疗开销只占GDP的11%。公司税务占了GDP的2%,跟过去的4%相比略有下滑。

Question 4: What is your opinion of active vs. passive management?

问题4:您对主动管理和消极管理有什么看法?

WB: Passivemanagement is active management in aggregate.  The S&P 500 representsthe aggregate result of America.  Nine years ago WB made a $1 million bet(for charity) on the Vanguard S&P 500 (very low fees) against a fund offunds (hedge funds).  The S&P 500 has outperformed the hedgefunds.  One-half of the gross returns of the hedge funds has gone to themanagers.  They have underperformed by 40%.  The portfolio managersare getting rich while failing their investors.  Find well-managedcompanies that grow over long periods of time and leave them alone. That’s mostly a passive approach.  Buy and hold.

Successfulinvestors need to have the right temperament.  Those with high IQ’sfrequently panic.

巴菲特:总的来说被动管理其实就是积极管理。标普500指数其实反映的是美国经济的整体结果。九年前,巴菲特跟人打赌,赌的是这个人旗下的对冲基金跑赢不了先锋集团的标普500 ETF。结果是标普500大幅度胜过了那个对冲基金的收益。对冲基金有近一半的收益都归基金经理持有了。基金经理越来越富有,但是没有实现对投资者的收益回报。找到一家经营管理良好、且长时期保持增长的企业,买入然后持有,不再管别的,这就是被动管理。

Question 5: What is your opinion of Dodd-Frank?

问题5:您对多德弗兰克法案怎么看?

WB:  We areless well equipped to handle a financial crisis today than we were in 2008. Dodd-Frank has taken away the Federal Reserve’s ability to act in acrisis.  In 2008/9 Ben Bernanke said he will do whatever it takes and onlyhe could have stopped it (financial crisis).  Money market funds equaled$3 ½ trillion or 50% of the $7 trillion of deposits in U.S. banks.  Thiscould have been the “greatest run” of all time.  Ben Bernanke was able todraw from the Emergency Stabilization Fund set up in 1933 with respect togold.   In 2008, President George Bush said the 10 most importantwords ever in economics:  “If money doesn’t loosen up, this sucker isgoing down.”  But Dodd-Frank took this option away from the Fed. Fear is contagious.  It paralyzes.  Confidence comes back one at atime, not by a stampede.  Both General Electric and Goldman Sachs were “inthe domino line”.   We were lucky we had the right people.

巴菲特:跟2008年相比,我们现应对金融危机的措施少了。多德弗兰克法案削减了美联储应对金融危机的能力。2008年到2009年,本·伯南克(美联储主席)他会竭尽全力应对金融危机,并且只有他一个人能终止危机。货币市场基金是3.5万亿,相当于美国银行总存款7万亿的一半。这可能是有史以来“最伟大的运作”。本·伯南克成功从1993年设立的跟黄金相对的紧急稳定基金中抽身。2008年,乔治·布什说出了经济学领域最重要的一句话:“如果货币政策不放松,这些混蛋都会倒闭”。但是多德弗兰克法案把美联储的选择权消除了。恐惧是会蔓延的,它会麻痹人们。信心只能一点一点被找回来,不会一下就寻回。通用电子、高盛都在这个金融危机的多米诺骨牌之中。我们很幸运,我们有正确的领导。

Question 6: What impact have the fixed income markets had on stocks?

问题6:固定收益市场对股票有什么影响?

WB:  Interestrates are to asset valuation as gravity is to matter.  It will take a lotof movement in interest rates (similar to Paul Volcker in 1981-2) before stocksare too high.  The interest rates on 30 year Treasury bonds have declinedfrom 14 ½ % to 2 ½ % from 1982 to 2016.  Recently, the 30 year Treasury movedfrom 2.6% – 2.8%.  Stocks are cheap if long term rates are at 4%, four tofive years from now.  “We are buying more shares than selling everydayunless interest rates move appreciably higher”.  A profitable trade wouldbe to short the 30 year bond and go long the S&P 500 (assuming no margincalls).  But this is difficult to do on a big scale.  Borrowed moneycauses more people to go broke than anything else. Charlie Munger has said,smart people “go broke from liquor, ladies and leverage”.

巴菲特:利率之于资产价值,相当于重力之于物体。利率还要经过几番调控,股价才会涨到高位。30年期国债的利率已经从1982年的14.5%下降到了2016年的21.5%。近期30年期国债的利率又从2.6%下降到了2.8%。如果未来4、5年,利率还长期维持在4%的水平,股价就会便宜。“除非利率又大幅度提高,不然我们每天买入的股票肯定会更多,而卖出的股票相对减少。” 一个可能带来收益的交易是做空30年期国债、做多标普500(假设没有追加保证金通知)。但是总体来说,这很难执行。借债是最容易让更多人破产的行为。查理芒格曾经说过,聪明的人“往往因酗酒、女人、借债而破产”。

Question 7: Why doesn’t WB invest in tech companies?

问题7:为什么巴菲特不投资科技公司?

WB: Ted (Weschler)and Todd (Combs) each have about $9 billion to invest. One or more invested inApple. With Apple, people get hooked on things that they like.  WB has acompetitive edge within his circle of competence (which does not include techcompanies).   His circle grows wider over time but outside of hiscircle tech people know better than he does.  WB mentioned that hedid not invest in Microsoft even though it had no cost of goods sold and wasearning a “royalty on the world” since the world needed its operating system.

巴菲特:泰德·维斯勒和托德·康布斯(伯克希尔的投资经理)每人收到都有90亿美金的投资基金。有一个或者多个人投资过苹果,人们总是容易被自己喜欢的事物迷住,苹果就是这样。巴菲特在自己的能力圈里极具竞争优势(但是这个能力圈不包括科技股)。他的能力圈在逐年扩大,但是在他的能力圈之外,懂技术的人对科技公司的了解比他要深入。巴菲特提到即便微软没有销售成本,能靠“客户忠诚度”盈利,全世界都需要它的操作系统,自己也不会买入。

Question 8: Is there a fundamental (investment) wisdom that you disagree with?

问题8:有没有什么关于投资的基本智慧您是不赞成的?

WB: Investinghasn’t changed much over time.  There were 15 students in Ben Grahams’sclass (where WB was an MBA student at Columbia).  He focused on cash over2- 3 years and certain returns.  A stock is a bond with coupons onit.  Berkshire Hathaway is a stock with coupons attached.  Severalyears ago WB invested in 15 South Korean companies selling at two timesearnings.  He didn’t know much about the companies except for their lowvaluations. He purchased a diversified portfolio.  It worked out very well. If you invest in good companies, you do not need to diversify. 

巴菲特:投资其实多年来都没什么变化。本格雷厄姆的课堂上当时有15个学生(巴菲特当时在哥伦比亚大学就读MBA)。格雷厄姆主要关注2—3年内的现金,以及特定的收益回报。股票其实是一个有折价券的债券。伯克希尔就是这样的股票。几年前,巴菲特投资了15家韩国企业,赚取了2倍收益。巴菲特知道的只是这些公司被低估了,其它的所知甚少。他买入了一个多样化的投资组合,收益很好。如果你投资了优秀的公司,这种多样化分散是不需要的。

Question 9: What qualities do you admire in others?

问题9:您会欣赏别人身上的何种品质呢?

WB: Choose someone(among your friends and classmates) whom you would want 10% of their futureearnings.  Someone who is generous with a good sense of humor and youwould want to be led by them.

巴菲特: 从你的朋友、同学中挑一个人,挑那个你想获得他未来收益10%的人。慷慨、幽默,这种人才是你想要追随的人。

Question 10: What impact have the central banks had on stock markets?

问题10:中央银行对股票市场有什么影响?

WB: Central bankshave pushed down interest rates and have affected the whole world. Europeneeded negative interest rates.  The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was$1 trillion 10 years ago and is $4 trillion today.  If WB could bereincarnated, he would like to come back as Chairman of the Fed.  Itprovides the fourth largest source of receipts to the U.S. Treasury.  Itpaid dividends last year (to the U.S. Treasury) of $117 billion.   Itis the largest hedge fund of all time.  Its net worth of $4 – $5 trillionconsists of $2 ½ trillion in Treasury securities and the Fed is responsible forover 3% of U.S. receipts.  Central banks have never been more importantand no one knows how this (negative interest rates) will play out.  Where there is chaos there is opportunity.

巴菲特:中央银行下调了利率,影响了整个世界。美联储的资产负债表上一年钱有1万亿美金,现在有4万亿美金。如果巴菲特可以转世,他希望能回来做美联储的主席。美联储是美国财政部第四大的收入来源,去年它给美国财政部分红了1170亿美金,它是一直是最大的对冲基金。它的净资产有4万亿—5万亿美金,其中2.5万亿是美国财政部的股权、美联储还需承担超过3%的国家收入。中央银行的地位十分重要,没人能够预测负利率会带来什么后果。混乱的地方才有机遇。

Question 11: What are your views on Tim Sloan (new CEO at Wells Fargo)?

问题11:您对缇姆·塞隆(富国银行的新任CEO)有什么看法?

WB: One-third ofthe country does business with Wells Fargo (WFC).  WFC broke a bond oftrust, but the number of depositors will be higher one year from now.  Itsbalance sheet is $1 trillion – $2 trillion.  Former CEO John Stumpf createdan incentive system with perverse consequences.  He should have actedquickly, but he did not.  John Gutfreund at Salomon Brothers in 1989 alsowas slow to respond.  One should face up to a problem fast.  “Get itright, get it fast, get it over”.  WFC will do fine over time. Berkshire has not sold any of its shares.  Charlie says: “an ounce ofprevention is worth a ton of cure”.

巴菲特:我们国家1/3的企业都跟富国银行有商业往来。富国银行之前出现了信任危机,但是存款人数明年肯定是要比现在多的。资产负债表上有1万亿~2万亿美金。前任CEO斯坦普夫设置的激励机制带来了不良后果。他本来应该快速解决,但是他并没有。他跟1989年所罗门兄弟公司的约翰·古弗兰一样反映缓慢。面对问题的时候,我们要快速应对。“要正中要害、要速战速决。”富国银行以后会发展得不错的。伯克希尔并没有卖出富国银行的股权。查理说过:“一盎司的预防胜过一吨的治疗”。

Question 12: Will technology replace human?

问题12:科技会取代人类吗?

WB: Technologywill not get rid of the human element of fear and greed.  You cannotprogram a computer to produce a durable competitive advantage nor createpassion for employees. Berkshire is not at a disadvantage now.  WBprefers Ted (Weschler) and Todd (Combs) over computers.

巴菲特:科技并不能把人类的恐惧和贪婪徐璈除掉。你不能让电脑有一个持久的竞争力,也不能用电脑来激励员工。伯克希尔哈撒韦在这方面并不处于劣势(因为伯克希尔哈撒韦子公司的管理者对工作充满激情)。相比电脑,巴菲特更喜欢Ted Weschler和Todd Combs(伯克希尔哈撒韦旗下的两名基金经理)。

Question 13: What was WB’s biggest mistake and what did he learn from it?

问题13:巴菲特犯过的最大错误是什么,并且他从中学习到了什么?

WB: His initialthree businesses are now out of business – (1) Berkshire Hathaway – textiles,(2) Blue Chip Stamps, and (3) Retail division – department store in Baltimore.He has made some “people” (hiring) mistakes.  The worst part of his job ishaving to terminate an employee.  He regrets “things I haven’t done eventhough I thoroughly investigated, but I didn’t do”. (Errors of omission ratherthan errors of commission)

巴菲特:他最初的三个企业都已经破产了:1.伯克希尔哈撒韦(棉纺厂)2.蓝筹印花 3.巴尔的摩的零售业务。 巴菲特还做雇佣了一些错误的人。他工作里最痛苦的地方是解雇别人。不过他最大的错误还是那些出现在他能力圈里他可以买入,但是最终没有买的投资机会。

Question 14: Why has Berkshire invested in airlines? 

问题14:为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦持有航空股?

WB: WB will notdiscuss his recent investments.  Normally smaller positions (under $1billion) are Ted’s or Todd’s.

巴菲特不讨论伯克希尔哈撒韦当下的投资。不过一般情况下,小额的投资(小于10亿美金的)都是Ted和Todd做的。

Question 15: What is the most important skill in finance?

问题15:在金融里,最重要的技巧是什么?

WB: The mostimportant skill in finance is salesmanship.  That’s how you convincesomeone to marry you and that’s how you get a job. The most important qualityto do well is temperament which would permit the control of fear and greedwhich have ruined many.  Anyone who has become rich twice is dumb. Why would you risk what you need and have for what you don’t need?  If youare already rich, there is no upside to taking on a lot more risk, but there isdisgrace on the downside.

巴菲特:在金融里,最重要的技巧是销售技巧。这就是你如何说服别人嫁给你,如何说服别人给你一份工作的。但是要想在金融里做的好,最重要的特征是你的性格。好的性格可以让你控制住恐惧和贪婪,很多人都死在了这上面。任何一个想变富两次的人都是蠢蛋。(当你第一次变富后)为什么要拿那些你拥有的和需要的(钱),来承担过量的风险获得那些你不需要的东西?如果你已经富有了,承担过量的风险并不会给你带来什么,但是一旦你变穷了,你失去太多了。